Based on Tesla’s sales, delivery, and production statements from its conference call the other day, I’ve updated US Tesla delivery (what we’re calling “sales”) estimates for 2014 and 2015. I’ve left the estimate for January 2015 as is. All in all, the estimates are based on averages that come from Tesla guidance, with some shifts throughout the year as changes in production occur — primarily, tooling up for the Model X, and beginning of Model X production. While Tesla tends to ship its cars to different regions in batches throughout the quarter (so may send a bunch to the US one month and then not many for the next two months), I think it makes more sense for the purpose of these “sales reports” to average these numbers out anyway, and not try to guess when Tesla makes big US shipments and how many cars are in those.
Before commenting a bit more, below are some of the key Tesla sales and production stats & estimates (from Tesla itself).
- 35,000 Model S cars were produced in 2014 (as targeted), but there was a delay in the deliveries of 1,400 (until January 2015) due to severe weather, people not being at home because of the holidays, shipping issues (with ships), etc.
- 9,834 cars were delivered in the 4th quarter if 2014, while 11,627 cars were built in that period.
- ~55% of cars shipped in 2014 went to the US.
- Tesla came into 2015 with over 10,000 Model S orders and nearly 20,000 Model X reservations.
- Tesla expects to deliver 55,000 vehicles in 2015, with about 40% of these expected for the first half of the year.
- Production in the 1st quarter of 2015 is expected to be about 10,000 vehicles, and about 9,500 are expected to be delivered.
- Tesla aims to produce 800 Tesla Model Xs a week in the fourth quarter of 2015.
Based on some of the statements above, we can infer that Tesla expects to deliver 12,500 vehicles in the 2nd quarter, and 33,000 in the 2nd half of the year. Let’s assume that the 4th quarter includes 18,500 of those, and the 3rd quarter 14,500.
I don’t recall seeing an expectation for how many of these coming deliveries will be to the US, but based on the statement that ~55% of 2014 shipments were to the US, I’m going to assume that 50% go to the home market in 2015. (If I see a very good argument for something different, I’m happy to adjust.)
Assuming Tesla gets up to production of 800 Model X SUVs by the end of the year, I’m going to guess that Tesla will produce 7,150 of the new electric SUV in the 4th quarter, and 850 in the 3rd quarter.
With updated Tesla numbers for 2014, I now have it that 100%-electric car sales increased 44% in the US in 2014, and that total electric car sales (including plug-in hybrids) increased 27%. Updated tables & charts are as follows: