A new report from Plug’n Drive on the subject of Ontario’s greenhouse gas emissions reductions plans explores various possible scenarios of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the Canadian province, positing that if Ontario’s EV sales were to rise 25% by 2020, then the province would eventually end up with over 100,000 EVs on the road by 2050.
Such a scenario would see the province’s greenhouse gas emissions reduced by up to 9.19 megatonnes, representing roughly 6.5% of the province’s current 2050 emissions reductions goals. Interestingly, this scenario would also allow EV owners to save around $4.4 billion in fuel costs — as well as reducing their vehicle’s net emissions by 67–95%.
Current plans in the province — as part of the Ontario Climate Change Action Plan — call for greenhouse gas emissions reductions of 15% (as compared to 1990 levels) by the year 2020; and 80% by 2050. This corresponds to reductions of 26.6 megatonnes and 141.6 megatonnes.
The overall takeaway of the report seems to be that, one of Ontario’s best options for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions (and meeting its goals) is to support EV adoption growth. The creation of supportive policies, an EV charging station buildout, and the creation of compelling off-peak electricity pricing, in particular, were noted as effective means in the report. Also mentioned is the need to change certain pieces of legislature — Building Code Act 1992 and Condominium Act 1998 — thereby improving options for a great many people.
The 5 scenarios explored by the report are:
- A) Baseline (status quo) – Growth continues at the current rate of 0.005% penetration (as measured in 2014) to 2050;
- B) Sales increase 10% annually to 2020 and stabilize at 1% of total vehicle sales from 2020 to 2050;
- C) Sales increase 25% annually to 2020 and stabilize at 2.4% of total vehicle sales from 2020 to 2050;
- D) Sales increase 50% annually to 2020 and stabilize at 8.7% of total vehicle sales from 2020 to 2050;
- E) Sales increase 100% annually to 2020 and stabilize at 32.5% of total vehicle sales from 2020 to 2050.
As it stands, there are currently 3,285 EVs on the roads of Ontario, and they represent, as mentioned above, roughly 0.005% of the total auto market in the province.
The report is quite interesting, and has a fair bit more to it. Those interested can find it here.