2017 Electric Car Sales — US, China, & Europe (Month By Month)

China Electric Car Sales
December 2017

China’s EV Market Share Hits 3.3%,
BAIC EC-Series = Superstar

The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in December. A total of 102,000 new passenger PEVs were registered last month, up 130% year over year. Yes, that was just December, and it pulled the year-to-date count to over 600,000 units, up 71% compared to 2016.

As consequence of this rapid growth, in December, the PEV share hit a record 3.3% market share of the entire Chinese auto market, while the entire 2017 PEV market share ended at 2.1%. That’s firmly ahead of last year’s score (1.5%) and above the USA (1.2%) and Europe (~1.9%).

The Chinese PEV market represented roughly half of the 1.2 million plug-ins sold worldwide in 2017, while Chinese carmakers made 47% of all PEVs sold last year.

Despite exports still being symbolic, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current production, helped by the fact that it is a highly protected market — foreign brands represent only 4% of PEV sales. Of this small cake, 2% belongs to Tesla, with the remaining 2% being divided by all other automakers.

In December, small city cars had the upper hand again, with the BAIC EC-Series being the poster child of them. The BAIC EC-Series saw over 13,000 sales, which allowed it to reach #30 in the mainstream automotive ranking in China. It was a good month also for the BYD plug-in hybrids, with the Song and Qin joining the top 5 ranking in December.

Top 5 Best Selling Electric Models in December 2017

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After a series of ever improving performances, it looks like the BAIC EC-Series has found its cruising speed, at over 10,000 units/month. It earned a whopping 13,169 registrations in December. The little city EV is proving to be disruptive in China, owing its success to a trendy design (reminiscent of a crossover), improved specs (now with 200 km, or 125 miles, of range) and competitive pricing ($22,000), all in a booming market segment. With the Chinese AND the global editions of the 2017 Best Selling PEV Award in BAIC’s hands, the EC-Series is now looking into 2018. A six-digit performance is likely — how far above 100,000 is pretty much open to discussion, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that this small EV could outsell the Tesla Model 3 and become the 2018 Best Seller … in the World. Again.

#2 – Chery eQ: One of the EV pioneers in China, having won the model title three times in a row (2011, 2012, 2013) with the QQ3 EV, Chery is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, which got a record 5,650 registrations in December, allowing it to reach the runner-up position last month. A vehicle targeted at city dwellers, for $24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city vehicle and the 22kWh battery provides enough range to cover the needs of the urban jungle (200 km, or 125 miles, according to the NEDC system).

#3 – SAIC Wuling E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors have high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and the production ramp up is starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having landed a record 5,545 registrations last month, earning its first podium place. Will it replicate the BAIC EC-Series success? I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, or even export prospects, as it could be marketed as GM’s Smart-like product outside China. For more info on this tiny two-seat electric car, please check here.

#4 – BYD Song PHEV: The current star product from Build Your Dreams (BYD), the plug-in hybrid version of its Song compact SUV had 4,643 registrations, its best result in the last 5 months. It seems BYD’s “Model Y” has stabilized around 4,000–5,000 units. In the future, though, that might not be enough to secure the best selling status in its class, despite its top-of-the-class specs (70 km / 44 miles of range; 0–100 km/h in 4.9 seconds).

#5 – BYD Qin PHEV: This is the most common plug-in car in China, with some 90,000 units registered to date. Thanks to recent changes, BYD’s “Model 3” (0–100 km/h in 5.9 seconds) got its mojo back and is once again a major player, grabbing a record 4,543 registrations in December. With a competitive price ($31,000 before incentives), sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them.

While the leaders are fun to follow, we also thought we’d start creating additional sales charts that include “others” — electric models outside the top 20 — to highlight how many sales come from a diverse range of models. Have a look:

Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series Wins Model of the Year, BYD Wins Manufacturer Title

The BAIC EC-Series won the 2017 Best Seller award, a first for a BAIC model and the end of a three-year rule by BYD (Qin PHEV won in 2014 and 2015, Tang PHEV won in 2016). The breakthrough model recorded 78,079 registrations in 2017, a new all-time record.

Second was the Zhidou D2 EV, scoring 43,342 units, with 2017 being by far the most successful year for the tiny two-seater.

In third, we have the first BYD, with the Song PHEV ending the year in the last podium position. With some 31,000 units, that’s roughly the same number that allowed the Tang to win the 2016 title. But with the market growing 70% per year, more was expected from the BYD best sellers.

In a stable market, the big news was the Chery eQ climbing to #4. The BYD Qin PHEV also had a big lift, rising to #8. And the BAIC EU-Series climbed to #14, thanks to 3,247 sales, a year best.

Two new additions to the Top 20 joined the ranking in December, with the promising Wuling E100 jumping to #17 while the old-timer BYD e6 (no doubt helped by fleet deals) scored its best score in December (3,818 registrations) — that’s a best ever since it landed something like 600 years ago in 2010, helping it to reach the Top 20 … in #20.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (18%, down 1%) won its fourth title in a row, but the 2017 award was the most difficult of them all, because it watched the runner-up BAIC (17%) get closer and closer every passing month, with the Shenzhen giant perhaps fearing a last-minute change in the leadership.

Looking into 2018, BAIC has beaten BYD in the last 3 months of the year, thanks to the EC-Series success, so if BYD wants to secure a 5th title, it will probably need a small city car to fight the EC-Series. In case BYD does offer that, I ask only one thing: A 100+ hp motor. The world needs tiny electric hot hatches…

In third place, taking the bronze medal, we have a last-minute change. Profiting from an underwhelming Zhidou performance (1,271 registrations, its worst result in 2017), Roewe (7%) climbed to the last place on the podium. The Shanghai-based manufacturer confirmed its status as one of the “Big Four” PEV carmakers in China with that surprise (the others are BYD, BAIC, and Geely) .

	EV Model	December	2017	EV Market Share
1	BAIC EC-Series	13,169	78,079	13%
2	Zhidou D2 EV	1,187	42,342	7%
3	BYD Song PHEV	4,643	30,920	5%
4	Chery eQ	5,650	27,444	5%
5	JAC iEV6S/E	1,122	25,741	4%
6	BYD e5	1,146	23,601	4%
7	Geely Emgrand EV	2,764	23,324	4%
8	BYD Qin PHEV	4,543	20,738	3%
9	SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	2,687	19,510	3%
10	Zotye E200	2,488	16,751	3%
11	JMC E100	1,922	15,491	3%
12	BYD Tang	1,505	14,592	2%
13	Changan Benni EV	2,829	14,549	2%
14	BAIC EU-Series	3,247	13,158	2%
15	JMC E200	2,605	12,340	2%
16	Hawtai EV160	3,521	11,823	2%
17	SAIC Wuling E100	5,545	11,420	2%
18	Zotye Cloud EV	2,099	11,038	2%
19	SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV	1,629	10,436	2%
20	BYD e6	3,818	10,023	2%
	Others	38,334	176,877	29%
	TOTAL	102,635	600,174

Cool Kids

This month, we had a number of new additions, a PHEV version of the MG6 sedan (think: Roewe i6’s sporty cousin and you are not far off), a taxi-friendly Great Wall C30 EV, an RR Evoque-inspired compact crossover (GAC Leopaard CS9), an electric van from Chery (Karry EV), and my favorite landing this month, the…

BAIC Arcfox Lite – This is a sort of premium and individualistic alternative to its EC-Series best seller. The Arcfox Lite is actually hard to define. It’s a small city car, but in a cheap and chic kind of way, you can even say it’s a coupe … well, sort of. Targeted at young, hip urbanites, the little two-seater has an extroverted style and it’s new from the ground up. It features lightweight materials (aluminium, carbon fiber), contributing to a light 900 kg curb weight. Being part of BAIC’s new “Arcfox” premium electric sub-brand, and despite having average specs (50 hp motor, 170 km or 106 mile range), it comes loaded with tech. That includes 3 screens on the inside and LED displays on the outside (front and rear), showing whatever passengers want. Starting at 94,000 Yuan ($14,500), this is something of an oddball — either it could be a major success, selling 5,000–10,000 units/month, thanks to its unique mix of individuality and hipsterness, or … it could tank because it’s too weird.

Europe Electric Car Sales
December 2017

Tesla Shines In Near Record Month

The European passenger plug-in market ended the 2017 season with a near record performance, growing 11% compared to the same period last year by registering some 33,700 units, just a whisker below the all-time record of December 2015 (33,827) — which, let’s not forget, was inflated by fiscal changes that happened in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark in January 2016.

Looking at the full year performance, sales were up 38%, to over 306,000 registrations. This growth is even more significant against the backdrop of a stagnating (-5%) automotive market in Europe, making plug-ins the fastest growing segment on the Old Continent.

More good news: in the BEV/PHEV breakdown, the BEV share grew to 49%, with all-electric cars growing faster than PHEVs (+45% vs +32%). Expect this trend to continue this year, with BEVs recovering the upper hand over plug-in hybrids.

Looking at plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) share, December hit a record 3% share among the overall automotive market, pulling the full-year share further up, ending 2017 at 2%. Looking into 2018, I think we should see the plug-in share end around 4% share, with the last months of the year even reaching some 6%.

In December, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter peak performance, but this time the resurgent Renault Zoe resisted the Tesla tide and won the Best Seller title anyway, thanks to 3,380 deliveries.

Interestingly, the biggest surprise in December didn’t reach the December top 5, ending the month at #6. The Smart Fortwo ED scored 1,707 sales, by far the nameplate’s best performance ever. It seems the tiny two-seater is experiencing overwhelming demand, with the Smart EV already having a 6-month waiting list and suffering from a recurrent problem: “Not enough batteries.”

Monthly Model Ranking

#1 Renault Zoe — December marked a return to form for the French hatchback, growing 18% year over year (YoY), to 3,380 registrations. That made it the car’s best performance since June. Let’s hope the Renault EV doesn’t suffer from further production hiccups and delivers enough units to satisfy demand from now on. As for individual country performances, besides the usual good result at home (1,652 registrations), there were also big numbers in countries like Germany (301 registrations), Norway (422 registrations), and Spain (168 registrations).

#2 Tesla Model S — Mostly thanks to Norway (1,026 registrations, its best result there in 32 months), the Californian was in second place in December, with boatloads of S’s arriving to Europe (starving some Asian markets) and deliveries up a whopping 74% YoY, to 2,451 total registrations. Aside from the Norwegian specific case, it appears the Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped them. Perhaps many buyers preferred not to wait and bought the older, bigger, more expensive model instead of waiting for ages for the Model 3 to cross the pond. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s undisputed contribution, the Netherlands (400 deliveries, its best result in 4 years!) and Germany (213 deliveries) were also heavy contributors. Overall, it was a generally positive month throughout the continent for the electric sports sedan. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to return to more regular levels, but the end of 2018 could imply falling sales, as buyers see the Model 3 arrival getting closer and closer…

#3 Tesla Model X — The ugly duckling of the Tesla stable had an opportunity to shine in December, growing 42% YoY to a record 2,156 registrations and ending the month on the podium. If the record sales in Norway (1,429 deliveries) were the main driving force, other markets also impressed, with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom posting three-digit tallies. The SUV/minivan-that-thinks-is-a-sports-car is profiting from incoming improvements (e.g., second- and third-row seats are now foldable…) and might start to leave the long shadow of older brother Model S.

#4 BMW i3 — The German Stormtrooper Hatchback was up 9% in December, to 1,979 registrations, a result explained by deliveries of the facelifted version starting, but note that it is still in an early production phase. Still, it was enough to secure another top 5 presence, and expect deliveries in 2018 to continue the growth path. Looking at individual countries, strong results in Norway (512 registrations, all BEV) and Germany (scoring 562 registrations) carried the day, with Austria (124) and France (177) also helping along. Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months as BMW returns to full production in its Leipzig plant and delivers as many i3 and i8 as the factory can pump out.

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — After a close race with the Smart Fortwo ED(!), the Japanese SUV managed to secure the 5th spot in December even though sales were down 23% YoY, to 1,837 registrations. Despite the setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range, and affordability (€40,000), which make it popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers. We’ll see.

	December	2017 — Full Year	EV Market Share
Renault Zoe	3,380	31,410	10%
BMW i3	1,979	20,855	7%
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,837	19,189	6%
Nissan Leaf	486	17,454	6%
Tesla Model S	2,451	15,553	5%
Volkswagen Passat GTE	1,291	13,599	4%
Volkswagen e-Golf	1,369	12,895	4%
Tesla Model X	2,156	12,630	4%
Mercedes GLC350e	975	11,249	4%
BMW 225xe	919	10,805	4%
BMW 330e	1,180	10,117	3%
Volkswagen Golf GTE	983	9,267	3%
Audi A3 e-Tron	616	8,356	3%
Volvo XC90 T8	725	7,847	3%
Mercedes C350e	399	6,861	2%
BMW 530e	825	6,143	2%
Hyundai Ioniq Electric	669	6,117	2%
BMW X5 xDrive40e	553	5,944	2%
Kia Soul EV	558	5,551	2%
Smart Fortwo ED	1,707	5,191	2%
Others	8,680	69,110	23%
TOTAL	33,738	306,143	100%

2017 Ranking —
Renault Zoe Wins #1 Best Selling EV Model Award,
BMW Wins #1 EV Manufacturer Award

The year 2017 crowned the Renault Zoe as the best-selling plug-in car in Europe, for the second time in a row, thanks to 31,410 registrations. That’s an increase of 43% compared to 2016. Silver went to the ever improving BMW i3, winning its first podium position with 20,855 registrations. The two-time winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ended the year in 3rd, its lowest standing ever since it landed, what, 400 years ago — in 2013. Having seen its sales drop 10% compared to 2016, and an astounding 39% relative to 2015, are wrinkles showing on the Mitsubishi plug-in hybrid? Still, the Japanese SUV was the best-selling plug-in hybrid for the fifth time in a row, and with no other PHEV selling at the same pace, expect it to remain the plug-in hybrid king throughout 2018.

Speaking of 2018, the Zoe and i3 are sure to run with the VW e-Golf and others (Smart Fortwo ED?) for podium positions, while the first position is sure to go to … the new Nissan Leaf. Hot on the heels of 10,000 orders in Europe alone, the facelifted version will not only be the strongest candidate for the best seller award, but will also expand EVs further into the mainstream buyer market.

But back to December, the last month of the year hasn’t brought many changes to the 2017 ranking, with the most important being the Smart Fortwo ED jumping enough seats to reach the top 20, while the 2017 Rookie of the Year, the BMW 530e, climbed to #16.

In the strong sales month, several models hit record performances. Besides the aforementioned Smart Fortwo ED having a smashing month and the Model X reaching a new deliveries record, two recently arrived Volvos have impressed, beating their own records: The XC60 PHEV registered an amazing 1,213 units, earning the ninth place in December, while the S/V90 PHEV twins had 594 deliveries.

Another rising star bubbling up below the top 20, the Porsche Panamera PHEV, despite struggling from a common disease (not enough batteries…), still registered 717 units last month. And the Mini Countryman PHEV, with 752 registrations in December, had yet another record month.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (18, down 1%) won the class trophy, repeating its 2016 title, followed by Volkswagen (12%) in second place. Renault (11%, down 1%) took the last spot on the podium. Interestingly, the 2016 podium was exactly the same…

Off the podium, Tesla (9%) was 4th and Mercedes (8%) was 5th, replacing Nissan and Mitsubishi in the 2017 ranking.

US Electric Car Sales
December 2017

With Tesla’s slower than expected Model 3 production ramp, the electric star of 2017 (in many respects) didn’t shine very brightly on the sales spreadsheet. In fact, it came in just below the Ford Focus Electric on the year-end sales tally.

However, it’s two older siblings — the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X — appear to have led US electric car sales*. Yet again, these numbers demonstrate some of Tesla’s competitive advantages not because they took home gold and silver, but because they actually competed (very well) in their respective classes. Their positions at or near the top of their classes would be like the Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF being the top-selling small hatchbacks.

Yes, it will be a bigger achievement when the Model 3 ramps up and takes over a much higher selling segment than the Model S and Model X fit into. All in time.

For now, looking back on the sales, 2017 was actually a rather odd year. It’s a hodgepodge of vehicles on the top of the ranking. You’ve got the high-class, high-cost, fully electric Model S and Model X. Then you’ve got the small, unassuming, bland, but practical and packed with LG Chem batteries Chevy Bolt. Then you’ve got a couple of solid but different plug-in hybrids that fit fairly popular car sizes and needs (the Toyota Prius Prime and Chevy Volt). Then you’ve got the Nissan LEAF barely holding on before a refresh to rank above two more plug-in hybrids, but these less available and less compelling on the electric front than the Toyota Prius Prime and Chevy Volt (the Ford Fusion Energi and Ford C-Max Energi). And then you’ve got the super fun, but a bit odd (and expensive), BMW i3.

I think the story will look much different in 5 years, when the market will hopefully be mature enough that the classes of car on the top 10 list look more like the classes of car on the overall top 10 list (perhaps still excluding a pickup truck if no one can get that done before then). Of course, what would be even cooler is if 5 of the cars on the electric car top 10 list are also on the overall top 10 list!

Any more thoughts on the December and overall 2017 US electric car sales.

*There are several automakers that don’t break out sales of their electric models (for example, sales of the BMW 330e are hidden within sales of the BMW 3 Series). As such, we have little insight into how many of these cars are sold in the US. Rather than guess, we exclude them from these monthly reports.

However, Tesla makes various statements about sales from time to time and offers some quarterly numbers, and Tesla vehicles are a more significant part of the EV market, so I create estimates based on every Tesla statement I can find as well as Tesla registration data in Europe and China. But do note that Tesla doesn’t publicly break out monthly sales and doesn’t break out country-by-country sales, so these estimates are definitely not precise.

Europe Electric Car Sales
November 2017

The European passenger plug-in vehicle market had its best not-last-month-of-quarter record in November, with over 29,000 vehicles delivered to happy customers. This is the 7th time in the last 8 months that we saw +50% growth rates.

Looking at the broader picture of the entire European automotive market, sales were up 5.9% in November. SUVs grew the fastest, +32%, highlighting the need for more plug-in SUVs, as that’s what the market currently wants.

If we look only at (plug-in electric vehicle) PEV share, November hit 2.4% share, keeping the year-to-date share at a record 1.9%.

As in the previous month, November saw a close race between the Renault Zoe, BMW i3, and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — decided at the last minute by a photo finish. This time, as the title tells you, the BMW i3 won, but by just 45 registrations.

Interestingly, the two best selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers, more risk averse, join the PEV market.

Also, worth repeating, one of the other top 5 (the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV) falls into the rare but highly desired plug-in SUV category.

Let’s look more closely at the monthly model ranking.

#1 BMW i3 — The German hot hatch was actually down 8% in November, to 1,932 registrations, a drop explained by the exceptional month of November ’16, when the deliveries of the 33 kWh version were in full swing. Another reason was a recent delivery hiccup derived from the facelift change of the hot hatch. Still the car found its way into enough customer parking spaces to be November’s best seller. Expect registrations in December to resume the growth path now that the above-mentioned delivery hiccup is resolved.

Looking at individual countries, apart from Switzerland (340 registrations, new record), there were no big surprises, with Norway registering 358 registrations (all fully electrics), and Germany scoring 438 registrations (276 of them being of the fully electric variety). Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months. BMW is returning to full production in its Leipzig plant and is likely to deliver as many i3 and i8 cars as the factory can produce.

#2 Renault Zoe — Despite growing 31% YoY, the November performance of the French hatchback confirmed that it has lost its previous “unbeatable” status, scoring 1,887 registrations and losing the November top spot to its BMW i3 rival. Meanwhile, the #3 Outlander PHEV ended only 52 units behind. Is Renault not willing to increase production, or is demand waning? Maybe the upcoming Leaf II is making a dent in its French cousin’s performance … or maybe not. As far as individual country performances, good news came from its home market (776 registrations, up 48%), while the Zoe also collected three-digit performances in Germany (235 registrations), Norway (213), and Spain (127).

#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — A sure value, the Japanese SUV has seen its sales go up 12% YoY, to 1,835 registrations, racing once again for the best seller status last month … but not quite getting it. Mitsubishi is one of the few top OEMs to have its sales limited by demand and not production. As such, Mitsubishi is actively promoting its plug-in model, highlighting its unique mix of space, AWD, and electric range (50 km according to NEDC, which we all know is unrealistically generous). Competitive prices (“deep discounts”) are the icing on the cake. This makes the Outlander PHEV popular in markets like in the UK, Norway, Sweden, and Germany, and a sales phenomenon in Iceland, having inclusively beaten its sales record last month by registering 154 units and making it the best selling passenger car in November in the country!! In the long run, it’s not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers. It hasn’t evolved (i.e., range has improved) like it has with competitors, and consumers seem more eager for fully electric cars.

#4 Volkswagen e-Golf — The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a big spike in demand, with record breaking performances almost every month. In November, the German hatchback took some time to breathe, seeing only 1,593 registrations last month. Still, with a waiting list, Volkswagen has enough room to continue improving results, and we might even see it win the best seller trophy next year. Looking at the e-Golf’s largest markets, Germany was for the first time the best-selling market, with a record 601 registrations; followed by Norway (359 registrations); the Netherlands (324 registrations, a new best); and Austria (71 registrations). With other markets helping the car along, the e-Golf is a more spread out vehicle now and not just a “Norway thing.” With Volkswagen announcing production increases to meet demand, expect 2018 to build on this year’s success. Oh, the wonders of increased range…

#5 Tesla Model S — The poster child for electric cars collected another top 5 presence, recording 1,531 registrations last month, its best off-peak performance in Europe since it landed in 2013. It seems many buyers got tired of waiting for the Model 3 and just went for the larger (and pricier) Model S. The largest markets for the Californian sport sedan were Norway (501 units), the Netherlands (235), and Germany (205). With the Model 3 still several months away from crossing the Atlantic, and without direct competition in the foreseeable future, expect this model to continue to be a regular here.

Europe	November	YTD	YTD Market Share
Renault Zoe	1,887	28,030	10%
BMW i3	1,932	18,490	7%
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,835	17,556	6%
Nissan LEAF	715	16,650	6%
Tesla Model S	1,531	12,916	5%
Volkswagen Passat GTE	1,268	12,032	4%
Mercedes GLC350e	1,482	11,823	4%
Volkswagen e-Golf	1,593	11,737	4%
Tesla Model X	1,100	10,517	4%
BMW 225xe	1,072	9,839	4%
BMW 330e	913	9,496	3%
Audi A3 e-Tron	577	7,679	3%
Volkswagen Golf GTE	948	7,558	3%
Volvo XC90 T8	752	7,304	3%
Mercedes C350e	437	6,117	2%
Hyundai Ioniq Electric	792	5,727	2%
BMW X5 xDrive40e	524	5,445	2%
Kia Soul EV	525	4,959	2%
BMW 530e	586	4,739	2%
StreetScooter Work	369	4,002	1%
Others	8,651	59,654	22%
TOTAL	29,489	272,270	100%

YTD Ranking — Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Reaches the Podium

November didn’t bring many changes to the 2017 ranking, with the most important being the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV displacing the sunset-mode Nissan LEAF from the #3 spot.

In a strong sales month, some models hit record performances. The trendy Mercedes GLC350e hit 1,482 registrations, a good sign for the future EQ all-electric SUV. The Tesla Model X had its first four-digit result (1,100 deliveries) in an off-peak month. And the Hyundai Ioniq Electric hit a record 792 deliveries, with the local brand importers profiting from the increased production on the fully electric version.

Outside the top 20, there are some rising stars that should make themselves noticed in 2018, like the Kia Niro PHEV, which registered 553 units last month, and the Mini Countryman PHEV, which had 733 registrations in November, achieving another record month. Coincidentally, both are compact crossovers, which says a lot about what body styles people currently prefer.

Finally, we owe a reference to the Opel Ampera-e (Euro Chevrolet Bolt). November was the second month in a row of increased deliveries (328 deliveries last month), which could mean that GM and PSA are finally willing to deliver it in decent volumes. Will we see it reach 500 units/month in the beginning of the year? I sincerely hope so — the little EV deserves to be successful, and it’s not its fault that GM and PSA management are … well, you know what rhymes with holes.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (19%, down 1%) is comfortably seated at the top spot. BMW is now being followed most closely by Volkswagen (12%, down 1%), having surpassed Renault (12%, down 1%) for the #2 spot. But with only 800 units separating them, anything can still happen in December.

Just off the podium, Tesla (9%) is running ahead of Mercedes, with 8% share, but with the December last-quarter-of-the-month Tesla peak expected to be a record-breaker, do not expect Mercedes to pose any problems for the Palo Alto automaker.

November 2017
USA Electric Car Sales

Note: You can toggle between US electric car sales charts for November 2017, November 2016, Jan–Nov 2017, and Jan–Nov 2016 via the little tabs near the top of the interactive chart above.

The big electric car sales story again in November was that Chevy Bolt sales rose again, and took the #1 spot again.

The next tier was Tesla’s showroom — the Model S and Model X — based on my estimates for the month*.

There there were again the two fairly popular plug-in hybrids — the roomier Toyota Prius Prime and the bigger-battery Chevy Volt.

Another notable drop-off lands on the Ford Fusion Energi and Ford C-Max Energi, and then there’s another notable drop-off before getting to the bottom of the pile. However, note that I don’t have full plug-in vehicle data since there are several companies that don’t break out sales of their plug-in car models. For example, the Fiat 500e, Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, and some BMW PHEV models may well see some decent sales, but they don’t publish such data.

Together, the fully electric car models here saw ~45% growth in sales in Jan–Nov 2017 versus Jan–Nov 2016. Plug-in hybrids saw ~16% growth in that period. And the percentage growth for all of them combined was an estimated ~33%.

I have a feeling we’re going to see a little explosion in sales in December, but we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see. Stay tuned.

November 2017
China Electric Car Sales

BAIC EC-Series Steps Into Warp Speed

The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in November — 84,000 new passenger PEVs registered last month. That’s almost double last year’s total for November. That 84,000 also put the year to date (YTD) count over 490,000, up 60% year over year (YoY).

As consequence of this accentuated growth, in November, the PEV market share of all new car sales crossed 3% for the first time, while the 2017 PEV market share is above 2%, firmly ahead of last year’s average (1.5%). As sales are expected to grow further in December, the Chinese PEV market might even reach 2.5% market share by year end.

This is a highly protected market, and November highlighted this, with foreign brands losing 1% share and now just having 5% of all PEV sales. Of this small cake, 3% (or 60% of it) belongs to Tesla, with the remaining 2% (40%) divided by all other automakers.

In November, small city cars had the upper hand, as rumors are that this class of EVs won’t have such generous subsidies next year, leading to a sales rush in this category. The BAIC EC-Series is the poster child of them, beating once again the world record for registrations in a single month, with 15,719 units. That’s more deliveries that the Tesla brand had globally in its best sales month (14,598 units, last September). Putting this number into more context, the EC-Series was the first plug-in to reach a top 25 position (#22) in China, while, in the same month, the best-selling PEV in the USA, the Chevrolet Bolt, was only #113.

November’s Top 5 Best Selling Electric Cars in China

#1 — BAIC EC-Series: I would say the 15,719 EC-Series cars registered last month are a historical landmark, but with ever improving performances, it looks like December should be even higher. Will it reach 20,000 units by then? The little city EV is being disruptive in China, owing its success to a trendy design (reminiscent of a crossover), improved specs (now with a range rating of 200 km / 125 miles) and competitive pricing ($22,000), and a booming market segment. With the Chinese and the global editions of the 2017 Best Selling PEV Award already in BAIC’s hands, the EC-Series is now looking to increase the number of units sold in one year — just after having beaten the all-time record, which belonged to the Nissan LEAF since 2014 (61,013 units). As Master Yoda would say: “Judge not by size, the Force is strong with the EC.”

#2 — JAC iEV6S/E: One of the EV pioneers in China, JAC has been selling plug-in vehicles since 2010. It is trying to regain relevance with its iEV6S/E compact crossover, which landed a record 4,965 registrations in November, allowing it to reach the runner-up position last month. A vehicle targeted to hip(ster) urbanites, for a competitive $26,000 before incentives, you get a trendy compact vehicle (Kia Soul sized) and a 33 kWh battery providing decent range (251 km / 157 miles NEDC). That covers the needs of the urban jungle, while the engine has enough power (114 hp) to give it the needed “go” for the customers’ personal Millennium Falcon needs.

#3 — BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 km / 63 miles), BYD’s sports sedan (0–100 km/h in 5.9 seconds) got its mojo back and, like Luke Skywalker, is once again a major player, benefiting from a record 4,258 registrations in November. With a competitive price ($31,000 before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them.

#4 — Zhidou D2 EV: As appealing as Chewbacca on crack, this little two-seater continues to be delivered in large quantities (4,062 units in November), mostly due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a quadricycle (like the Renault Twizy, in case you know that vehicle a bit better) in some European countries. It has the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 km of range (75 miles), for some $19,000. The brand has ambitious plans to market it as a carsharing vehicle in Europe, but will local consumers want to drive it?

#5 — JMC E200: A model that would only be considered sexy on Planet Vulcan, it does what is supposed to do, which is urban transportation. Based on a previous version of the Changan Benni EV, the little city car has 150 km / 94 miles of range and a limited 40 hp electric motor. It is, however, great value for money — only for $20,000 before subsidies, you get a four-seater with decent equipment and a smartphone app! I am just imagining Vulcans and Sheldon Cooper going nuts over this … like some of the 3,442 new owners of the model in November possibly did.

	China	November	2017	Market Share
1	BAIC EC-Series	15,719	64,910	13%
2	Zhidou D2 EV	4,062	41,155	8%
3	BYD Song PHEV	3,367	26,277	5%
4	JAC iEV6S/E	4,965	23,088	5%
5	BYD e5	1,806	22,455	5%
6	Geely Emgrand EV	2,570	20,560	4%
7	Chery eQ	3,372	20,134	4%
8	SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,781	16,823	3%
9	BYD Qin PHEV	4,258	16,195	3%
10	Zotye E200	2,651	14,263	3%
11	BYD Tang	1,758	13,087	3%
12	JMC E100	562	12,734	3%
13	Changan Benni EV	564	11,720	2%
14	JMC E200	3,442	10,828	2%
15	BAIC EU-Series	1,255	9,911	2%
16	Zotye Cloud EV	3,099	8,939	2%
17	SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV	1,169	8,807	2%
18	Hawtai EV160	2,834	8,302	2%
19	Tesla Model X e)	900	7,970	2%
20	Kandi K12 EV	2,194	7,858	2%
	Others	24,384	132,592
	TOTAL	84,518	490,750

Year-to-Date Ranking – JAC iEV6S/E climbs to Fourth

In a stable market, the big news is the JAC iEV6S climbing to #4, at the expense of the BYD e5. This is the highest standing for a JAC model since 2013.

The BYD Qin PHEV also had some reasons to be happy in November, climbing to #9. And the JMC E200 reached #14, thanks to a record month.

On the rise is also the Zotye Cloud EV, jumping to #16 thanks to a year-best 3,099 deliveries. Other small EVs also surfed the year-end sales rush wave, like the Hawtai EV160 (2,834 units, new record), Zotye E200 (2,651), and Kandi K12 EV (2,194).

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (19%, down 1%) is watching runner-up BAIC (17%, up 1%) approach steadily, which could lead to a last-minute change in the leadership in December. Is BYD sweating? In 3rd place we still have Zhidou, with 8% share, but Roewe (also 8%) is creeping closer and closer, now less than 3,000 units behind. The Shanghai-based manufacturer will play all its cards in December to reach the podium, in its bid to become #3 of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

Cool Kids

New additions this past month, we had a 10-year-old rehashed Suzuki Wagon R EV landing (Changhe Wagon EV), a taxi-friendly Dongfeng sedan (Skio E17), and a rather attractive Zotye Z500 EV sedan, but the possible future star to land this month comes from Zhidou.

Zhidou D3 EV — The third model of the brand, following on the late D1 and current D2 best seller, one could say that the D3 has some big shoes to fill. The D2 is the current #2 in the Chinese PEV ranking, with over 40,000 deliveries in 2017 and more than 50,000 since it landed in 2016.

The little two-seater now has a more palatable style compared to its predecessor (think: current Smart Fortwo, but better), has grown slightly in size (just below 3 meters), and has increased range (170 km / 106 miles), thanks to a larger 17.5 kWh battery. Inside, things are updated with more contemporary style and equipment, including a digital instrument panel and two(!) touchscreens. Don’t be fooled by the small number of deliveries (33) in its landing month — this thing is made to be sold by the thousands per month. Will it improve on the current D2 success?

There are pros and cons for this new model. On the one hand, it has much better styling and one won’t feel ashamed to drive one, but on the other hand, if the rumors that city EVs will be less incentivized turn out to be true, that may divert many prospective buyers. I would say a 5,000 units/month production rate will be the minimum to keep Zhidou happy.

October 2017
Europe Electric Car Sales

VW e-Golf Shines

The European passenger plug-in vehicle (PEV) market seems to have reached a turning point, with October growing 56% in comparison to the same period last year, to over 27,000 units. This is the 5th month in the last 6 with +50% growth rates.

Looking at the broader picture of the overall automotive market in Europe, we are also watching some seismic changes, with diesel-powered cars dropping 10% year over year (YoY) in October, to 41% market share, while regular gasoline cars are up to 51% and alternative fuel cars (PEVs, HEVs, CNG, etc.) are up to 6% market share.

If we look only at PEV share, October hit 2.1% share, keeping the year-to-date share at a record 1.8%.

October saw a close race between the Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf, decided at the last minute by a photo finish, with the Renault Zoe winning by just 46 units while the VW e-Golf (2,159 units) performed its third personal best score in a row.

Interestingly, the two best selling gas/diesel models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers (more risk averse) join the EV market.

Looking at the monthly model ranking:

#1 Renault Zoe — Despite growing 52% YoY, the October performance of the French hatchback was a bit disappointing, scoring 2,205 sales, losing the untouchable status it had in the first half of the year. Considering there is still a waiting list to be filled, Renault could increase production at its Flins factory without major demand problems. Are production constraints to blame? As for performances in individual country markets, despite underperforming in its home market (775 units, down 4%), it broke all records in Spain (554 deliveries) thanks to a carsharing deal, and also collected high numbers in countries like Germany (243 units) and Sweden (119 deliveries, the third straight month of record deliveries).

#2 Volkswagen e-Golf — The range increase of this German hatchback coincided with a massive spike in demand, with record-breaking performances almost every month. Registrations rose to 2,159 last month. With a months-long waiting list, Volkswagen has enough room to continue improving results, and we might even see it win the best seller trophy soon. Will it be in November? Looking at its largest markets, Norway is still the backbone of demand, with a record 1,168 units being delivered there, but Germany (389), Netherlands (184 units, new personal best), Austria (78 registrations), and other markets are helping it along. The e-Golf is now a more spread out vehicle and not just a “Norway thing.” With the sales record (11,170 sales in 2015) set to be broken in November, and Volkswagen announcing production increases to meet demand, expect 2018 to build on this year’s success. Oh, the wonders of increased range…

#3 BMW i3 — The German Hot Hatch was down 4% in October, to 1,687 units, with this drop likely being explained by the current facelift change. With BEVs now representing 74% of all sales, we are very far from the mix of April 2016, when the BEV version represented only 48% of sales. Looking at individual countries, there are no big surprises, with Norway registering 417 units (all BEV) and Germany scoring 332 registrations. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to pick up as BMW starts to deliver its new, facelifted units.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — A sure value, the Japanese SUV has seen its sales go up 6% YoY, to 1,494 registrations, with Mitsubishi being one of the few top OEMs to have its sales limited by demand and not production. As such, Mitsubishi is actively promoting its plug-in model, highlighting its unique mix of space, AWD, and electric range (50 km, NEDC), with competitive prices (read: “deep discounts”) as the icing on the cake. This makes him popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, and Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.

#5 Volkswagen Passat GTE — Back in the top 5, VW’s favorite PHEV company car recorded 1,244 units last month. The largest markets for the Passat GTE were Sweden (535 units), Germany (235), and Norway (207). With the right mix of space, electric range, and a familiar badge, expect this model to continue to be a regular here.

YTD Ranking – Volkswagen e-Golf Climbs to #8, StreetScooter Joins Top 20

October didn’t bring many changes to the YTD ranking, with the Renault Zoe remaining stable in the lead and the 2nd place BMW i3 distancing itself from the Nissan LEAF, which is now entering “sunset mode.”

With the Outlander PHEV fewer than 500 units behind, we might even see Mitsubishi’s SUV drop the LEAF to 4th before December.

The first position change from October sales was in the 8th Position, with the VW e-Golf displacing the Tesla Model X. The ever improving German BEV is now aiming for the 5th position by year end, and maybe a podium place next year.

In the second half of the top 20 we see the Golf GTE climb to #13 and the Hyundai Ioniq Electric reach #18.

But the real news is the Streetscooter Work delivery van joining the top 20, having 910 units registered last month. That’s despite being sold in only two markets (Germany and the Netherlands). It is already the best selling model in its category, and it knocked the Nissan e-NV200 off the top 20 list. Is the DHL-owned company starting to be disruptive in the delivery van class?

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated at the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%) in 2nd place, while a recovery-mode Volkswagen (13%) is closing in, having recovered 1,200 units in October and now being only some 800 units behind the French manufacturer.

Will we see VW reach silver next month?

Off the podium, Tesla (9%) is running ahead of Nissan and Mercedes, both with 8% share.

	Europe	October	YTD	Market Share
1	Renault Zoe	2,205	26,143	11%
2	BMW i3	1,687	16,567	7%
3	Nissan Leaf	1,075	15,914	7%
4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,494	15,477	6%
5	Tesla Model S	773	11,365	5%
6	Volkswagen Passat GTE	1,244	10,787	4%
7	Mercedes GLC350e	1,056	10,332	4%
8	Volkswagen e-Golf	2,159	10,091	4%
9	Tesla Model X	616	9,392	4%
10	BMW 225xe	939	8,763	4%
11	BMW 330e	808	8,682	4%
12	Audi A3 e-Tron	587	7,102	3%
13	Volkswagen Golf GTE	947	6,550	3%
14	Volvo XC90 T8	780	6,543	3%
15	Mercedes C350e	436	5,679	2%
16	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	565	4,924	2%
17	BMW X5 xDrive40e	435	4,913	2%
18	Kia Soul EV	583	4,431	2%
19	BMW 530e	697	4,248	2%
20	StreetScooter Work	910	3,633	1%
	Others	7,836	50,990	21%
	TOTAL	27,832	242,526	100%

October 2017
China Electric Car Sales

The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in October. With 66,000 new passenger PEVs registered last month, that’s almost double the result of October ‘16, while pulling the YTD count to over 405,000 units, up 55% YoY.

As consequence of this, the 2017 PEV market share has crossed for the first time the 2% share, firmly ahead of last year’s score (1.5%). As sales are expected to grow even further until the end of the year, the Chinese PEV market might even reach 2.5% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 6% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, and the remaining 1% divided by all other automakers.

In October, both small city cars and compact SUVs placed two representatives in the top 5, with the EC-Series beating the world record for registrations in a single month, hitting 11,315 units, while the new 100 km version has given the BYD Qin PHEV a second youth, reaching 4,102 deliveries, a new record for the nameplate.

Here are October’s top 5 best selling models:

#1 – BAIC EC-Series: I would say the 11,315 EC-Series registered in October were a historical landmark. After all, it was the first time that a single model crossed into five-digit sales. But with ever improving performances since the 2,563 units registered last June, it looks that number will continue to go upwards until December. The little city EV is a revolution itself in China, owing its success to a trendy design (reminding one of a crossover), improved specs (now with 200 km of range), and competitive pricing (~$22,000). In a booming market segment, that’s the recipe for success. With the Chinese edition of the 2017 Best Selling PEV title already in its hands, BAIC is now looking to win the global edition of the same award. To that end, last month, it surpassed the three big boys (Nissan LEAF, Toyota Prius Prime, and Tesla Model S), thus becoming the first Chinese model to reach #1 on the global market.

#2 – Zhidou D2 EV: This is truly a bare-basics city vehicle, but it continues to be delivered in large quantities (4,502 units in October), probably due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a quadricycle (think: Renault Twizy) in some European countries. It has the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 km of range, 90 km/h max. speed, ~$19,000. The brand has ambitious plans to market the D2 EV as a carsharing vehicle in Europe. Will anyone bite? Will local consumers want to drive it?

#3 – BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 km), BYD’s sports sedan (0–100 km/h in 5.9 seconds) recovered its mojo and had a record 4,102 registrations in October. With a competitive price ($31,000 before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them in order to satisfy demand.

#4 – BYD Song PHEV: If the Qin is the “Model 3” of BYD, the Song is the “Model Y,” a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version. Last month, it registered 3,064 units, dropping some 700 units compared to the previous month. Is the Qin renewed success hurting the Song demand, or is it just a case of production constraints? I believe the full potential of BYD’s compact SUV could be around 5,000 units/month.

#5 – JAC iEV6S: One of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, JAC is trying to regain relevance with its iEV6S, a compact crossover (think: Kia Soul EV) that registered 2,861 units in October, allowing it to reach a top 5 position last month. A vehicle targeted to hip urbanites for a competitive $26,000 before incentives, you get a trendy city model, with a 33 kWh battery providing decent range (251 km, NEDC). And the engine has enough power (114 hp) to give it the “go” needed for its customers’ supposedly active life.

China	October	YTD	Market Share
BAIC EC-Series	11,315	49,191	12%
Zhidou D2 EV	4,502	37,093	9%
BYD Song PHEV	3,064	22,910	6%
BYD e5	2,386	20,649	5%
JAC iEV6S	2,861	18,585	5%
Geely Emgrand EV	1,742	17,990	4%
Chery eQ	1,996	16,762	4%
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,593	15,042	4%
Changan Benni EV	632	12,375	3%
BYD Qin PHEV	4,102	11,937	3%
Zotye E200	2,349	11,612	3%
BYD Tang	868	11,329	3%
JMC E100	246	10,663	3%
BAIC EU-Series	412	8,656	2%
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV	2,811	7,638	2%
JMC E200	1,799	7,386	2%
Tesla Model S e)	350	6,498	2%
Tesla Model X e)	500	6,481	2%
Zotye Cloud EV	276	5,840	1%
Kandi K12 EV	1,638	5,664	1%
Others	21,001	100,831	25%
TOTAL	66,443	405,132	100%

Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series Orders the 2017 Title

In a stable market, the big news is the EC-Series ~~definitely~~ quite likely securing this year’s Best Seller title, a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that BYD loses the Best Selling PEV award. Back then, the best-seller was the Chery QQ3 EV, with 5,727 registrations. With two months to go, the EC-Series is now at 49,000.

To see some changes in the ranking, we have to go to fifth place, where the JAC iEV6S climbed one position The BYD Qin PHEV jumped four positions to #10, surpassing, among others, the stablemate BYD Tang, which dropped two positions to #12, a surprisingly low position for the 2016 Best Selling PEV.

On the rise is also the Roewe eRX5 BEV, jumping to #15 thanks to a record 2,811 deliveries. Other models also hit personal records. Besides the aforementioned BAIC EC-Series, BYD Qin PHEV, and Roewe eRX5 BEV, three recent additions scored record results: The Changan Eulove EV scored 1,201 registrations, Hawtai registered 2,112 EV160s, and the much awaited Wuling E100 was at 1,724 registrations in only its third full month on the market. No production hell there…

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (20%, up 1%) is comfortable at the throne, keeping the runner-up BAIC (16%, up 1%) at a safe distance. At least for now.

In third place we (still) have Zhidou, with 9% share, with Roewe (9%, up 1%) closing in. The Shanghai-based manufacturer is trying hard to reach the podium in its bid to become the third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

October 2017
US Electric Car Sales

Our EV charging conference last week delayed my monthly US electric car sales report, but the day has arrived.

Naturally, Tesla Model 3 bottlenecks are a bummer, so my Model 3 estimate* is moderate. Meanwhile, estimates for the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X put these vehicles at #2 and #3. And the car that really stole the show in October was the Chevy Bolt.

If you click on “YTD 2017” in the interactive chart below, you can also see that the Bolt rose above the Volt and all non-Tesla vehicles to become the #3 car in year-to-date US electric car sales. The fun thing is that this also makes the three top-selling electric cars in the US fully electrics.

A couple of solid plug-in hybrids close out plug-in car models with sizable sales. And if they have a couple of good months, the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius Plug-In could even overtake the Bolt before the year shuts down shop — highly unlikely, given the Bolt’s big rise, but possible.

The Nissan LEAF was hanging in there, but then sales fell off a cliff last month. Perhaps Nissan inventory was just getting cleared out before the next-gen LEAF arrives and there wasn’t much available in October, or perhaps buyers have ditched the idea of getting a 2017 LEAF and are waiting for a next-gen LEAF or Tesla Model 3 instead.

The only other models (that I can track or decently estimate) that have notable sales are the Ford Energi models and the BMW i3. Those models continue to see moderate sales, but none of them are likely to reach 10,000 in 2017, while the Chevy Bolt is now doing 10,000 in just ~4 months.

Jump into the numbers further by either playing with the interactive charts at the top or gazing into the tables below.

September 2017
China Electric Car Sales

The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in car market seems unstoppable, with another record performance in September. In total, 59,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered last month in China, growing 80% regarding the same month last year, pulling the year to date (YTD) count to over 338,000 units, up 48% YoY.

As consequence of this, the plug-in car market share is at a record level, with 1.8% share, firmly ahead of last year’s score (1.5%) but not sky high yet in terms of market share. Sales are expected to grow even further by the end of the year, though, and the Chinese plug-in car market is sure to surpass the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 6% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, and the remaining 1% being divided by all other automakers.

In September, small city cars remained popular, with the EC-Series beating the country’s monthly record. It saw over 8,400 deliveries, with a second BYD (Qin PHEV) joining the Song PHEV in this month’s top 5.

Top 5 Best-Selling Electric Models in September

#1 — BAIC EC-Series: A consistent top seller this year, the EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, last month improved its already impressive August result (6,726 units) by registering 8,419 units, a new all-time high for a single model anywhere in the world. The little city EV owes its success to a trendy design (reminiscent of a crossover), improved specs (now 200 kilometers of range), and a competitive price (€19,000). Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Right now it is the most likely winner, which would be a first for BAIC, and with ever growing sales, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was the first EV to reach 5 digits in one month.

#2 — Zhidou D2 EV: A bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, this car continues to be delivered in record quantities (5,084 units in September, a new personal best) — probably due to fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a quadricycle (think: Renault Twizy) in some European countries. It comes with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kilometers of range, 90 km/h max. speed — all for some €16,000. The brand has ambitious plans to market it as a carsharing vehicle in Europe, but will local consumers want to drive it?

#3 — BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y,” a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version. Last month, it registered 3,745 units, dropping some 400 units compared to the previous month. Is that from production constraints or is demand already fading? I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5,000 units/month. Adding some 2,000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song singing to the tune of 7,000 units/month, both versions counted.

#4 — BYD Qin PHEV: Thanks to a recently increased range (100 km), BYD’s sports sedan (0–100 km/h in 5.9s) recovered its mojo and had 3,554 units registrations in September, the nameplate’s best result in over two years. With a competitive price ($31,000 before incentives) and full access to government incentives, sales are expected to remain high, as long as BYD manages to make enough of them in order to satisfy demand.

#5 — Chery eQ: This little five-door Chery delivered 2,652 units in September, allowing it to reach the top 5. A popular choice among city dwellers, for $24,200 before incentives you get a fairly funky city car, with the 22 kWh battery providing decent range (200 km) and the engine giving just enough power (57 hp) so that it doesn’t feel underpowered.

Year-to-Date Ranking — BYD Qin PHEV Jumps 6 Positions

In a stable market, we have to go all the way down to #14 in order to see a significant change, with the BYD Qin PHEV jumping 6 positions. The other significant news is the Roewe eRX5 BEV joining the top 20, thanks to 1,940 units (a new personal best).

The remaining positions haven’t seem much action, but there were some personal records being broken across the ranking. Besides the aforementioned BAIC EC-Series, Zhidou D2 EV, and Roewe eRX5 BEV performances, another model also broke its personal best: The JAC iEV6S registered 3,021 units, more than it had delivered in the whole year of 2016.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (19%, down 1%) is comfortable at the throne, keeping the former leader BAIC (15%) at a safe distance. At least for now.

In 3rd place, we have Zhidou, with 10% share, and Roewe on its tail (8%, down 1%). The Shanghai-based manufacturer is trying to reach the podium in a bid to become the third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

China	Sept.	YTD	%
BAIC EC-Series	8,419	37,152	11
Zhidou D2 EV	5,084	32,591	10
BYD Song PHEV	3,745	19,846	6
BYD e5	2,288	18,263	5
Geely Emgrand EV	2,437	16,248	5
JAC iEV6S	3,021	15,724	5
Chery eQ	2,652	14,766	4
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,437	13,449	4
Changan Benni EV*	2,586	11,743	3
BYD Tang	1,077	10,461	3
JMC E100	1,693	10,417	3
Zotye E200	1,167	9,263	3
BAIC EU-Series	234	8,244	2
BYD Qin PHEV	3,554	7,835	2
Tesla Model S*	364	6,159	2
Tesla Model X*	514	5,978	2
JMC E200	540	5,587	2
Zotye Cloud EV	684	5,564	2
SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV	1,940	4,827	1
BYD Qin EV300	115	4,646	1
Others	15,435	79,247	23
TOTAL	58,986	338,010

Cool Kids

In this section, we look at some of the cars landing in the previous month that have potential to reach the top 20. We have two models this month.

Changan CS15 EV — After recently introducing the Eulove MPV, now it’s time for an SUV, the CS15. With a range of 300 km, thanks to a 42 kWh battery, this Nissan Juke–sized model has its weak point in the engine department, delivering only 75 hp and allowing it a 110 km/h top speed. So, while it won’t go fast, it will at least go for a long time. Having landed with only 30 units, one could be in doubt of a successful career, but considering the current SUV craze in China, I wouldn’t be surprised if it topped out at 1,000 units per month.

Hawtai Lusheng EV — I remember seeing this car at the Shanghai Auto Show and for some reason (the front?) reminding me of a Bentley. Then I looked at the inside of the car and the idea of a Chinese Bentley disappeared, with cheap and dark plastics all around. So, the outside is OK, the inside KO. What about specs? A 39 kWh battery and 230 km range is not bad, but hardly something to make it stand out, just as the engine (109 hp) doesn’t. Further, at $33,000, it is not cheap enough to distance itself from the more popular Geely Emgrand EV. Sales target: 700 to 900 units/month.

September 2017
Europe Electric Car Sales

The European passenger plug-in market returned from the holiday season with fully charged batteries, growing almost a third (+32%) compared to the same period last year by registering some 33,700 units. That’s just a whisker below the all-time record of December 2015 (33,827), which, let’s not forget, was inflated by fiscal changes that happened in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark in January 2016.

This growth is even more significant against the backdrop of a stagnating (-2%) automotive market in Europe, making plug-ins the fastest growing segment on the Old Continent.

Looking at the plug-in vehicle (PEV) share, September hit a record 2.2% share, pulling the year-to-date share further up, now at 1.8%.

In September, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter peak performance, but this time the tide was higher than usual, with the Model S registering its best result in 18 months, stealing for the first time this year the best seller award from the Renault Zoe. At the same time, the Model X scored a record result, all while the VW e-Golf performed its third personal best in just four months.

Interestingly, the two best-selling ICE models in Europe (VW Golf and Renault Clio) have their plug-in counterparts (e-Golf and Zoe) reaching the top 5. Expect this to become a trend, once more and more mainstream buyers — more risk-averse — join the EV market.

Monthly Model Ranking

#1 Tesla Model S — It had been 30 months since the last time the Californian wore the Best Seller scepter in Europe, but September brought boatloads of the Model S to Europe — in consequence, deliveries were up 50% in September, to 2,527 units, thus winning the month.

It appears the Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped it, as many buyers preferred to not wait and instead bought the older and more luxurious model. Looking at individual countries, Norway’s contribution is undisputed (1,007 deliveries, best result in over two years), but the Netherlands (310 deliveries, best result in 18 months) and Germany (226 deliveries) were also heavy contributors in what was a generally positive month throughout the continent for the sports sedan. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to return to more regular levels — that is, unless Norway does put forward the “Tesla Tax.”

#2 Renault Zoe — The French hatchback had a rather disappointing September month, growing only 23% YoY, to 2,306 units. For the first time this year, it lost the Best Seller of the Month trophy. Deliveries were expected to be higher, especially considering there is a 3–4 month waiting list to be filled, so there is room for Renault to increase production. As for individual market performances, besides the usual good result at home (1,267 units, up 56%), there were also high numbers in countries like Germany (278 units) and Sweden (113 deliveries, new record).

#3 Tesla Model X — The Ugly Duckling of the Tesla stable had an opportunity to shine in September, growing 42% YoY to 2,137 units and ending the month on the podium. With record sales in important markets like Norway (996 deliveries) and the Netherlands (244), the SUV-minivan-that-thinks-it’s-a-sports-car is profiting from incoming improvements (e.g., second- and third-row seats are now foldable …) and might start to leave the long shadow of the Model S older brother.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — The Japanese SUV’s sales were down 11% YoY, to 2,080 registrations, but despite this setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range (50 km on the NEDC), and affordability (€40,000). That combo makes him popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Germany. In the long run, however, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.

#5 Volkswagen e-Golf — The range increase of the German hatchback coincided with a massive spike in demand, with record-breaking performances almost every month, pulling registrations up to 2,041 deliveries last month. With a 4-month-long waiting list, Volkswagen has enough breathing room to continue improving its results, and we might even see it win the Best Seller trophy soon. Will it be in October?

Looking at its largest markets, Norway is still the backbone of demand, with 949 units being delivered there, but with Germany (494, new record), Netherlands (121 units, new personal best), and Austria (111 registrations, again a new record), and other markets helping it along, the e-Golf is set to become a more spread out vehicle and not just a “Norway thing.” With 2016 sales (6,678 units) already surpassed and the record (11,170 sales, in 2015) not that far off, 2017 will surely be the best year ever for the all-electric Golf. Oh, the wonders of increased range…

YTD Ranking – BMW i3 Recovers 2nd Place, Teslas & e-Golf Shine

There’s a lot to talk about in the YTD ranking. While the Renault Zoe remained stable in the lead, the remaining positions had plenty of changes, starting with the BMW i3 (2025 units, best month since March) recovering the Silver medal from the Nissan LEAF, now entering this model year’s “sunset phase.”

With the Outlander PHEV less than a thousand units behind, we might even see Mitsubishi’s SUV drop the LEAF to 4th before December.

Other models on the rise are the Tesla Model S & X, with the first climbing to #5 and the second to #8, while the VW e-Golf joined the Top 10 at #9 and could reach as high as the #6 position by year end — and maybe even a podium place next year.

In the second half of the top 20, we see the VW Golf GTE and Volvo XC90 PHEV hitting year-best performances, and a hot seller is bubbling up, with the #29 BMW 530e (679 registrations) climbing one position and looking to climb a few more in the future.

Outside the ranking, the Streetscooter Work delivery van deserves a special mention, having registered 852 units in September, thus becoming the best selling model in its category that month. Is the DHL-owned company starting to be disruptive in the delivery van class?

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (20%) is seated at the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%, down 1%) in 2nd place, while a recovery-mode Volkswagen (13%, up 1%) is now firmly in 3rd place, less than 2000 units behind the French manufacturer. Will we see VW reaching silver next month?

Europe	September	YTD	EV Market% Share
Renault Zoe	2,306	23,938	11%
BMW i3	2,025	14,825	7%
Nissan LEAF	1,387	14,809	7%
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	2,080	13,963	7%
Tesla Model S	2,526	10,580	5%
VW Passat GTE	1,264	9,520	4%
Mercedes GLC350e	1,191	9,260	4%
Tesla Model X	2,136	8,774	4%
VW e-Golf	2,041	7,915	4%
BMW 330e	1,289	7,862	4%
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer	1,196	7,804	4%
Audi A3 e-Tron	856	6,495	3%
Volvo XC90 T8	930	5,735	3%
VW Golf GTE	976	5,568	3%
Mercedes C350e	782	5,231	2%
BMW X5 xDrive40e	547	4,476	2%
Hyundai Ioniq Electric	552	4,352	2%
Kia Soul EV	502	3,829	2%
BMW 530e	679	3,508	2%
Nissan e-NV200	379	3,279	2%
Others	8,072	42,424	18%
TOTAL	33,716	214,147	100%

September 2017
US Electric Car Sales

I love doing the US electric car sales report at the end of each quarter. With Tesla’s quarterly figures published, Tesla registration data from Europe and China mostly logged, my estimates for the first two months of the quarter, and a little more estimating (Australia, UAE, etc.), I’m able to check out the remainder I have left for Tesla sales in the last month of the quarter. As has happened nearly every time before, the figure that resulted for US sales in that third month of the quarter actually looked logical, so I left all previous months as initially projected.

Estimating Tesla sales always makes me a bit nervous — in part because the monthly figures often put the Model S and Model X at #1 and #2 on the sales chart, and I get concerned about hidden bias or an impression of bias. Also, the US vs non-US sales split has long been guided by a couple of statements from Elon Musk and I haven’t heard more guidance from him in years about how Tesla sales shake out by region. However, those early notes from Elon combined with registration data Jose Pontes digs up from Europe and China leave little play space for US sales estimates. Once the quarterly sales are out, I get the last bit of the equation that I need to check and complete my estimates — how closely Tesla’s deliveries matched up with expectations.

Okay, with that long intro out of the way, let’s get to the numbers. It jumped out yet again to me that Tesla’s abnormally high sales of large, expensive, luxury vehicles really shouldn’t be sitting at the top of an overall EV sales ranking. The top selling cars on the market are not large, high-end sedans and SUVs, so it seems wrong for such vehicles to top the EV sales list. But the point is: they’re the EVs that are most competitive in their respective vehicle classes. If other EVs were as competitive in their much more popular vehicle classes, they’d be at the top of the list.

As it stands, there are basically just a handful of other electric models that see decent monthly sales. Perhaps there are some that I don’t track (since the parent automaker doesn’t reveal their monthly sales numbers, or any sales numbers), but I doubt it. As far as these other noteworthy plug-in vehicles, here are some quick thoughts on September and overall 2017 sales figures:

Chevy Bolt sales continue to grow month after month, hinting that GM has gotten production ramped up and/or time + word of mouth are moving more and more off the lot. If it weren’t for those rascal Tesla kids, the Bolt would be the top-selling electric car in the US. Of course … if it weren’t for Tesla, the Bolt wouldn’t be on the market. (That’s basically a fact, not an opinion.)

Toyota Prius Prime benefits continue to hold up in court, and broad availability must not hurt. Yes, the car will forever be ignored and sneered at by many a Tesla fan, but this model does offer a competitive mixture of size, price, creature comforts, new tech, and flexibility.

Chevy Volt sales are down a bit compared to earlier in the year, perhaps losing traction from the rise of the Chevy Bolt and Toyota Prius Prime, but it’s still an amazing offer for the price. It’s got to be on my list of the top 5 best buys on the US car market. It may not be a Tesla Model 3, but we can’t all be.

Nissan LEAF sales remained above 1,000 again in September, demonstrating a persistence and resilience I did not expect as Chevy Bolt production ramped up, Tesla Model 3 production started, and a next-gen Nissan LEAF with much more range was unveiled. It’s still a bit of a mystery what is keeping the sales funnel flowing, but the presumption is that it’s some combination of compelling discounts, fleet sales, simple word of mouth from the broad network of happy Nissan LEAF drivers who have been selling their friends and family on the car for years, and repeat buyers/lessees who have decided to stick with the current LEAF for a few more years while they wait for the next generation of electric cars to really get rolling. Or Nissan is just lying.

The Ford Energi brother & sister duo (Fusion Energi and C-Max Energi, respectively) continues to see moderately okay monthly sales. A combo of half-decent availability, cost competitiveness, and the ability to drive on electricity a bit but also benefit from the long-distance convenience of a gas tank + ample interior and cargo space is all that it takes to move several hundred cars off the lot each month.

BMW i3 sales are meh, but I still love this vehicle.

As for the Tesla Model 3, in case you missed it, Elon Musk has admitted yet again that they are deep in production hell right now.

You'll know as soon as we do. We are deep in production hell 🔥

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 6, 2017

Let’s hope they find an air-conditioned exit out of hell soon.

Check out the full sales tables below and let us know your thoughts in the comments below the article!

August 2017
Europe Electric Car Sales

The (VW) Empire Strikes Back

The plug-in market in Europe had a surprisingly strong August month, with over 22,000 registrations, up 68% year over year (YoY). That pushes the plug-in market share up to 1.7%.

This unexpected surge can also be an indication of an exceptional September month. Will this mean the December 2015 record (34,213 registrations) is in danger?

Despite being a usually slow sales month due to the holiday season, the Renault Zoe hasn’t stopped leading the way. For the eighth month in a row, it was #1. But the real news in August was the deliveries surge from Volkswagen, with brilliant performances across the lineup, while also winning the month’s silver and bronze medals.

Looking at the monthly model ranking:

#1 Renault Zoe — Still struggling to satisfy the demand for its long-range supermini, Renault couldn’t lift off the accelerator and enjoy the holiday season. The French hatchback scored 2,152 units, up 147% YoY, with strong performances across the continent. The Zoe landed 710 deliveries in its domestic market, 423 in Germany, and 148 in Denmark. What an increased range does to an electric car’s sales…

#2 Volkswagen e-Golf — The 1,694 deliveries the e-Golf scored in August not only beat its previous personal record, set last June (1,360 units), but it also allowed the e-Golf to triple the result made in the same period last year (549 units), mostly thanks to Norway (996 deliveries, a new record) and Germany (475 units, a new record). Oh, the wonders of increased range…

#3 Volkswagen Passat GTE — Also profiting from Volkswagen’s recent love for plug-ins, the Passat GTE registered 1,352 units, its best result since January. The plug-in hybrid Passat landed great results in Sweden (614 units, a new record), Norway (356), and Germany (198). The German midsizer is once again flying high, driving middle managers across Europe to their next customers/meetings/mistresses.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — A classic in these Euro charts, the Japanese SUV was back in black, growing 18% YoY to 1,204 units. It collected strong results in Norway (358 units) and Sweden (176), but the headlining result was in Iceland, where it set an all-time record for a single model — 152 registrations. No wonder Iceland is at 10% share…

#5 BMW i3 — It looks like the 33 kWh sales boost has ended, with the German hot hatch delivering only 1,149 units, its lowest result in a year. Leading markets, unsurprisingly, were Norway (390 units) and Germany (238). If it’s true, the upcoming restyling could help stop the sales bleeding, but the fact is the EV market is moving fast and only a sharp price cut can make it competitive again.

YTD Ranking — Volkswagen on the Rise

While the podium positions remained stable, below the podium were significant changes, with the VW Passat GTE climbing to #5, its e-Golf stablemate jumping to #11, and to end Volkswagen’s nearly perfect month, the Golf GTE climbing to #14.

In #20 we now have the BMW 530e, which saw 627 units moved in August. It seems this young plug-in hybrid has struck a chord with its target audience, which is eager to cash in on those juicy plug-in incentives. The model also shamed its direct rival, the Mercedes E350e (which only saw 204 registrations in August) and even kept up with the almighty Tesla Model S (766 deliveries).

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW is comfortable in its carbon fiber throne, holding 20% EV market share, followed by Renault (14%) and Volkswagen (12%, up 2%).

Europe	August	YTD	YTD Market Share
Renault Zoe	2,152	21,632	12%
Nissan LEAF	993	13,456	7%
BMW i3	1,149	12,809	7%
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,204	11,882	7%
VW Passat GTE	1,352	8,243	5%
Mercedes GLC350e	1,002	8,053	4%
Tesla Model S	766	8,051	4%
BMW 225xe	692	6,661	4%
Tesla Model X	577	6,636	4%
BMW 330e	592	6,556	4%
VW e-Golf	1,694	5,874	3%
Audi A3 e-Tron	904	5,634	3%
Volvo XC90 T8	340	4,802	3%
VW Golf GTE	616	4,584	3%
Mercedes C350e	512	4,432	2%
BMW X5 xDrive40e	279	3,925	2%
Hyundai Ioniq Electric	620	3,801	2%
Kia Soul EV	570	3,325	2%
Nissan e-NV200	301	2,900	2%
BMW 530e	627	2,806	2%
Others	5,363	34,351	19%
TOTAL	22,305	180,413	100%

Cool Kids

This month we have only one new vehicle landing, but an important one:

Kia Niro PHEV — Building on the success of its regular hybrid sibling, which has broken the Toyota monopoly in its category, the plug-in hybrid Niro lands at the heart of the hottest selling segment in Europe: compact crossovers, where currently it has no direct competition to worry about — not that competition would be a problem. The Kia Niro PHEV has quite compelling specs (58 kilometers of electric range on the optimistic NEDC cycle) and pricing (€33,000). The problem for Kia will be to make enough of them to satisfy demand. Target: 1,000/month.

August 2017
China Electric Car Sales

A record 55,000 new passenger electric cars were registered last month in China, with the market growing 68% compared to the same month last year and pulling the year-to-date (YTD) count to over 282,000 electric cars, up 45% year over year (YoY).

As a consequence of all this, the plug-in vehicle (PEV) market share grew once again, this time to 1.8%, and is now firmly ahead of last year’s record (1.5%). Sales are expected to grow even further by the end of the year, and the Chinese PEV market seems sure to surpass 2% share by year end, maybe even reaching 2.5%.

And this is just the beginning. With the Chinese market setting ambitious goals for the next few years, we are set to see the needle rise significantly year after year. And remember that BYD expects a new car market that is 100% electrified by 2030 (but that includes conventional hybrids).

This is still a highly protected market, where 94% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 1% to BMW, and the remaining 1% divided by all other automakers. And, surprisingly, that represents a bit of an opening in the market compared to previous months and years, when foreign brands had even significantly lower share.

In August, small city cars were all the rage, with the EC-Series winning the best-selling award (over 6,700 deliveries — a new record), soundly beating the #2 Zhidou D2 EV. The Kandi K17, meanwhile, joined the top 5 this month.

Here are the top 5 best selling models in August 2017:

#1 — BAIC EC-Series: A consistent seller this year, the BAIC EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, sold 6,726 units in August, a new all-time record for a single model in China. The little city EV’ surge last month owes its success to a trendy design in an affordable package — it’s reminiscent of a crossover, has decent specs (now with 200 km of range), and comes with a competitive price (€19,000). Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? If that happens, it would be a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that a BYD model didn’t win the trophy.

#2 — Zhidou D2 EV: A bare-basics city vehicle that I commonly say doesn’t inspire anyone, this model continues to be delivered in record quantities (5,018 units in August), probably due to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a quadricycle (think: Renault Twizy) in some European countries. It hosts the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 km range, 90 km/h max speed, approximately €16,000.

#3 — BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y,” a VW Tiguan-sized SUV with a plug-in hybrid drivetrain. The Song PHEV registered 4,194 units, dropping some 900 units compared to the previous month. Production constraints or is demand fading? I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5,000–6,000 units/month, plus some 3,000–4,000 units from the fully electric version, which should be enough to have the Song reach the tune of 10,000 units/month if you count both versions. (The fully electric version had another 1,200 deliveries last month, in its second full sales month.)

#4 — Geely Emgrand EV: Geely’s electric sedan had a year-best performance in August, with 4,114 registrations. Improved specs (300 km of range) and equipment without hurting the final price too much (€25,000) helped it to pull sales up, but it remains to be seen if Geely will be able to match its personal best, achieved last December (6,023 registrations), this year.

#5 — Kandi K17: This five-door Kandi saw 3,213 deliveries in August, allowing it to squeeze into the top 5. A popular choice among carsharing companies, priced at about €21,000 before incentives, you get a fairly spacious city car (think: Renault Zoe) and the 20kWh battery provided enough range for many people, with the major drawback being the weak engine (48 hp).

China	August	YTD	YTD Market Share
BAIC EC-Series	6,726	28,733	10%
Zhidou D2 EV	5,018	27,507	10%
BYD Song PHEV	4,194	16,101	6%
BYD e5	2,093	15,865	6%
Geely Emgrand EV	4,114	13,811	5%
JAC iEV6S	2,603	12,703	4%
Chery eQ	2,245	12,114	4%
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,201	12,012	4%
Changan Benni EV*	2,122	9,831	3%
BYD Tang	860	9,339	3%
JMC E100	1,147	8,724	3%
Zotye E200	866	8,096	3%
Kandi K17*	3,213	8,018	3%
BAIC EU-Series	1,196	8,010	3%
Tesla Model S*	700	5,995	2%
Tesla Model X*	1,000	5,664	2%
JMC E200	809	5,047	2%
Zotye Cloud EV	114	4,880	2%
BYD Qin EV300	256	4,518	2%
BYD Qin PHEV	2,178	4,166	1%
Others	12,165	61,566	22%
TOTAL	54,820	282,700	100%

Year-to-Date Ranking — Beijing Auto EC-Series Back at #1

The big news of August was of course the BAIC EC-Series returning to the top spot, but the last place of the podium also changed hands, with the BYD Song PHEV climbing to #3, being at the same time the best-selling SUV and the best-selling PHEV in the ranking.

The Geely Emgrand EV jumped to fifth place, while the Roewe eRX5 PHEV stumbled to #8, scoring its worst result since February (1,201 units). The Roewe eRX5 PHEV was actually outsold by its brand new BEV sibling (1,580 units). A case of internal competition?

Could that be a reference for the Kandi K17 surging to #13? Also notable is that the BYD Qin PHEV returned to the top 20, thanks to 2,178 deliveries, its best result in 11 months, making that 5 BYDs in the top 20, or 25% of the list!

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (20%, down 1%) is stable in its position on the throne, keeping the previous leader BAIC (15%, down 2%) at a safe distance.

In 3rd place, we have Zhidou, with 10% share. SAIC is on its tail (9%), with the Shanghai-based manufacturer aiming to surpass it soon in its bid to become the third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

Cool Kids

In this section, we look at some of the cars that landed in the previous month and have potential to reach the top 20:

Changan Eulove EV — A surprisingly strong landing for the small MPV, with 1,095 units, the numbers show the excellent value for money this model offers. In exchange for €20,300, you get a spacious if awkward-looking compact MPV, with a 35 kWh battery and 252 kilometers of range. This is a model to follow closely, and could potentially displace the Benni EV as the best-selling Changan EV.

SAIC Wuling E100 — A lot is expected from this Smart-like model, as SAIC hopes to steal a significant portion of the important city-EV and carsharing markets, distributing it through its popular Wuling brand. At 249 centimeters in length, SAIC managed to make it even smaller than the Smart Fortwo, and with only 39 hp in its engine, it is no pocket rocket, but it can travel up to 155 kilometers on a single charge. With a hip interior, which in some ways looks better than the Smart itself, this is a model that can certainly overshadow the Zhidou D2. Although, SAIC is being cautious in these first stages, delivering only 674 units in its debut month. Target: 5,000 units/month.

August 2017
US Electric Car Sales

Update: This article has been updated to correct a few key stats after an error was identified in two spreadsheet formulas (the “100% Electric Totals” in the second table).

The US electric car market has continued to grow at a rapid pace in the past year — led by California’s particularly strong electric car market, of course. From January through August, sales of 8 fully electric cars* grew 47% in the country. Sales of 6 plug-in hybrid cars were up 30%. Overall, that meant sales of these 14 plug-in car were up 40%.

August 2017 vs August 2016 was less dramatic but still a period of strong growth. Fully electric car sales were up 19%. Plug-in hybrid sales were up 4%. Overall, that meant a 13% increase in plug-in car sales.

If the Tesla estimates** are to be believed, the Tesla Model S was far ahead in the #1 spot, the Chevy Bolt held tight at #2, the Toyota Prius Prime rose to #3, the Tesla Model X dropped to #4, and the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF retained their places at #5 and #6, respectively. Ah, gone are the days of the neverending LEAF vs Volt battle at the top of the charts (which was a super tight competition for years).

If you look at the January through August stats (which are educated estimates** but certainly not exact), the Model S is crushing it (despite its high price tag). That hints at how extremely competitive the car is in its niche segment. The Volt has a slight lead over the Model X, which has an even slighter lead over the Toyota Prius Prime. The Chevy Bolt has a gap to cover to catch up with any of those models, but now that sales are picking up and availability is nationwide, it has potential to climb up the ranking and perhaps even land on the podium by the end of the year.

We can surely expect electric car sales to keep increasing as Tesla Model 3 production ramps up, the next-generation Nissan LEAF arrives on dealer lots, and overall EV awareness rises. I would be surprised if our report one year from now doesn’t show a more dramatic electric car sales increase of 82% at this point in time.

Here are more 2017 sales details in table format:

EV Model	August 2017	August 2016	% Change	YTD 2017	YTD 2016	% Change
Audi A3 e-tron	129	346	-62.7%	2,467	2,637	-6.4%
BMW i3	504	1,013	-50.2%	4,097	5,372	-23.7%
BMW i8	29	145	-80.0%	304	931	-67.3%
Chevy Bolt	2,107			11,670
Chevy Volt	1,445	2,081	-30.6%	13,895	14,295	-2.8%
Ford C-Max Energi	705	707	-0.3%	5,954	4,687	27.0%
Ford Focus Electric	131	75	74.7%	1,332	579	130.1%
Ford Fusion Energi	762	1,422	-46.4%	6,522	9,998	-34.8%
Nissan Leaf	1,154	1,066	8.3%	9,685	7,922	22.3%
Tesla Model 3	100			130
Tesla Model S	2,700	3,000	-10.0%	20,882	17,093	22.2%
Tesla Model X	1,800	1,800	0.0%	13,356	10,000	33.6%
Toyota Prius Prime	1,820	2	90900.0%	13,157	48	27310.4%
Volkswagen e-Golf	317	454	-30.2%	2,512	2,253	11.5%
All EVs Total	13,703	12,111	13.1%	105,963	75,815	39.8%
100% Electric Total	8,813	7,408	19.0%	63,664	43,219	47.3%
PHEV Total	4,890	4,703	4.0%	42,299	32,596	29.8%

**I base these on every Tesla statement I can find on the matter as well as Tesla registration data in Europe and China. But note that Tesla doesn’t publicly break out monthly sales and doesn’t break out country-by-country sales, so these estimates are definitely not precise.

July 2017
Europe Electric Car Sales

Zoe #1 in Holiday Season

The European plug-in car market started its usual holiday season in July, down almost a third compared to the previous month (summertime = lower sales). There were some 19,600 registrations. But that is still up 41% regarding the same month last year, so the growth trend continues. Year to date, the market is up 34% this year, with the EV share now standing at a record 1.6%.

Despite being holiday season, the Renault Zoe hasn’t stopped setting the pace. A bit like cyclist Chris Froome, it seems no one can get the Zoe out of the yellow jersey, whatever the month or competition. The French hatchback once again demonstrated a solid lead as the continent’s best seller, while plug-in hybrids took this special time of the year to post a positive month and outsell pure electrics (57% vs 43%). Year to date (YTD), however, BEVs are still ahead — but by fewer than 100 units.

Monthly Model Ranking

#1 Renault Zoe — With orders currently outnumbering production, Renault couldn’t lift the foot off the accelerator too much and enjoy the holiday season, so the Zoe scored 1,919 units, up 68% year over year (YoY). That was enough to easily win the monthly best seller trophy for the 7th time in a row in Europe. Well, that’s all of the 2017 trophies so far. The model saw good news across the continent, with high numbers in Germany (413 units), Norway (250), and Austria (207).

#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — Once king, the Outlander PHEV had a positive month in July, with the Japanese SUV sales growing 4% YoY (to 1,406). Besides the usual strongholds (the UK, Sweden, and Norway), Mitsubishi hit a home run last month in Iceland, scoring 134(!) sales, a new all-time record for a single model in that country. In the long run, though, no one really knows if the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.

#3 BMW i3 — The popular German hot hatch was up 73% in July, to 1,287 registrations. The fully electric option represented 71% of all sales. Looking at individual countries, there were no big surprises, with Norway registering 277 units (all of them being fully electric) and its home market, Germany, scoring 325 registrations. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to slow down as people anticipate the revised version, coming later in the year.

#4 Nissan LEAF — The granddaddy of the ranking keeps on scoring four-digit results like it had been launched only a few months ago. Sure, most is thanks to deep discounting, but nevertheless, the ageing hatch is resisting quite well to the newer offerings, growing 18%(!) YoY to 1,128 registrations. With steady sales in its stronghold markets (France, UK, and Norway), and even scoring a record 61 deliveries in Portugal, the veteran model is keeping momentum by appealing to a new demographic — bargain hunters looking for the current best value for money. Were it a new model, I would even say it was the first EV to reach price parity with the ICE competition.

#5 Mercedes GLC350e — This Mercedes plug-in SUV recorded 991 deliveries last month, proving to be the fashionable luxury SUV du jour (nevermind that it only has 34 kilometers of range on the NEDC system, or some 20 kilometers of range in the real world). The important feature here is that it manages to dodge the fiscal system in many countries and gives its owners the benefits of being “environmentally friendly” despite the short electric range (Euro-speak for “compliance car”). But enough bitching. The stylish Mercedes has its largest buyer bases in Norway (295 July sales), Germany (138 July sales), and Belgium (132 July sales). This model is serving for Mercedes as a customer lab experiment, warming them up for the brand’s real game-changer, the 2019 EQ SUV.

	Europe	July	YTD	YTD %
1	Renault Zoe	1,919	18,739	12%
2	Nissan Leaf	1,128	12,189	8%
3	BMW i3	1,277	11,501	7%
4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,406	10,708	7%
5	Tesla Model S	547	7,269	5%
6	Mercedes GLC350e	991	6,917	4%
7	VW Passat GTE	627	6,864	4%
8	BMW 225xe	901	6,055	4%
9	Tesla Model X	562	6,021	4%
10	BMW 330e	662	5,614	4%
11	Audi A3 e-Tron	926	4,932	3%
12	Volvo XC90 T8	395	4,309	3%
13	VW e-Golf	410	4,159	3%
14	Mercedes C350e	438	3,882	3%
15	BMW X5 xDrive40e	366	3,638	2%
16	VW Golf GTE	483	3,557	2%
17	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	475	3,051	2%
18	Kia Soul EV	511	2,706	2%
19	Nissan e-NV200	248	2,466	2%
20	Audi Q7 e-Tron	263	2,283	1%
21	Mercedes B250e	251	2,036	1%
22	Mercedes E350e	258	1,769	1%
23	BMW 530e	546	1,731	1%
24	Volvo V60 T8	156	1,677	1%
25	Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid	151	1,611	1%
26	Renault Kangoo ZE	80	1,599	1%
27	Volkswagen e-Up!	151	1,539	1%
28	Streetscooter Work	383	1,489	1%
29	MINI Countryman PHEV	452	1,281	1%
30	Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid	525	1,213	1%
	Others	2,155	11,928	8%
	TOTAL	19,643	154,733	100%

YTD Ranking — Zoe Reinforces #1, Nissan LEAF Climbs to #2

Looking at the YTD ranking, the top positions remained stable. The Zoe increased its lead, and the most notable changes were simply the Mercedes GLC350e climbing to the #6 spot and endangering the Tesla Model S’s position at #5.

Another model on the rise was the BMW 225xe Active Tourer, now in #8. By the way, imagine how many more units this model would have if the 7-seat version also had a plug — aside from the low-range Nissan Evalia “van with windows,” no one is selling a regularly priced plug-in 7-seater in Europe. Why, oh why? It’s low-hanging fruit, people. …

In this edition, we’re extending the ranking to a list of the top 30, where we can see more hot sellers bubbling up, like the #23 BMW 530e (546 deliveries in July — only one unit less than the Model S) and the recently arrived Mini Countryman PHEV (452 units) in #29. The British crossover was sandwiched between two models that only share a nationality and the fact that both have a steering wheel and four wheels: The Post Office’s best friend, StreetScooter Work, in #28, and the #30 Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid.

But what about the Opel Ampera-e (Chevrolet Bolt in Euro-speak)? Well, the good news is that it is climbing in the ranking. Currently, it’s at #33, but it is crawling up the list at glacial pace, so expect it to reach the top 10 in around … a million years, when the Pangaea supercontinent is back. Maybe.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated on the Iron Throne, followed by Renault (13%, down 1%) in second place. The third spot is being toughly fought by the new bronze medalist Mercedes (11%, up 2%), Volkswagen (10%, down 1%), Nissan, and Tesla (these last two with 9% share).

Will Mercedes be able to race with Renault for the #2 position, or will VW fight back and recover the #3 spot? Don’t miss out the next episodes. We surely won’t.

Cool Kids

Looking at this month’s new models, it’s an all-Volvo edition:

Volvo S/V90 T8 (PHEV) — As typical in Sweden as enjoying some Fika time in the garden, surrounded by IKEA outdoor furniture while bathing in the sunshine of the short Swedish summer, the S90 and V90 finally got plug-in hybrid variations (S90 – Sedan; V90 – Station Wagon). These are Volvo’s top-of-the-range car options, and the twins delivered 204 units in their first full sales month, already outselling the veteran V60 T8. So, expect the S/V90 combo to reach some 400 to 500 units/month once they are in full cruising speed, sales that would put them at the same pace as their class’s best sellers, the Tesla Model S and the German Armada.

Volvo XC60 T8 (PHEV) — A smaller, cuter version of the XC90 PHEV yacht, the midsize SUV registered 138 units in its first full sales month. That’s not a lot, but this model’s potential is enormous — not only does it sit at the heart of the SUV craze, but it also has some good looks (the #1 selling point for luxury SUVs) and an almost usable electric range (thanks to a 10.4 kWh battery, which allows some 45 kilometers of range on the NEDC testing circuit). The successful Mercedes GLC350e will have a worthy competitor here, as, technically, the Swede is the superior model (more power & more electric range). And on the subjective looks department, I believe it to be a stunner. All in all, expect it to reach the GLC350e sales level, which is to say a regular top 10 presence.

July 2017
China Electric Car Sales

Some 44,700 new electric cars started zooming the Chinese streets last month, which made July the second best month ever for the segment. The electric car market grew 37% compared to the same month last year. The sales also pulled the YTD count to over 227,000 units, up 40% year over year (YoY). Additionally, regarding overall stock, a notable milestone has been reached — over one million plug-in cars are now registered in China (from 2009 until now), making it the first market to reach a 7-digit figure. Chinese electric cars now represent 40% of all plug-car stock in the world (which is up to around 2.6 millions).

As consequence of all this, the plug-in car market share grew once again, this time to 1.6%, beating last year’s record (1.45%). As the year progresses and sales expand, expect the Chinese plug-in car market to surpass the 2% share.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, and the remaining 1% is divided by all other automakers. Interestingly, the Buick Velite 5 (a thinly disguised Chinese Chevrolet Volt) was for the first time the best-selling foreign nameplate in China in July, with 382 units delivered.

In July, the much awaited BYD Song PHEV won its first best-selling award, with over 5,000 deliveries, beating both the Zhidou D2 EV and the BAIC EC-Series. With that boost, BYD itself has beaten for the second time in a row the all-time manufacturer sales record, registering 11,207 units in the month. Stepping up the pace, it is increasing the distance between it and runner-up Beijing Auto.

Here’s more on July’s top 5 best-selling models and their individual performance:

#1 — BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y,” a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version (the BEV had 1,500 deliveries in July, its first full sales month). In only its third full sales month, it registered 5,069 units, the second-best score ever for a BYD model — the Tang still holds the record of 5,503 units (set back in December 2015), but that will probably being beaten this summer.

This is a disruptive model. Why? It’s a plug-in SUV that goes 0–100 km/h in 4.9 seconds, and has a price tag of only $41,300 USD. … I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5,000–6,000 units/month. Adding some 3,000–4,000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song reach the tune of 10,000 units/month, both versions counted. And these are 2017 targets — by 2018, BYD should have even more ambitious goals for it and new models to add to its lineup, but more on that below.

#2 — BAIC EC-Series: A consistent best-seller this year, the BAIC EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, sold 4,068 units in July. The little city EV seems to have found its natural sales level around 4,000 units per month, which is a bit disappointing, as this is a decent design with competitive specs (20 kWh battery) and price (€19,000). Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Doubt it, but if so, it would be a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that a BYD wouldn’t win the trophy.

#3 — Zhidou D2 EV: This is a bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but continues to be delivered in large quantities (3,796 units in July), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a quadricycle (think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries. It has the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kilometers of range, 90 km/h max speed, and all for some €16,000.

#4 — Chery eQ EV: The funky Chery eQ sold 3,264 units in July, allowing it to stay in the top 5. This is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs. For €22,000 before incentives, you get a decently equipped city car with a 22kWh battery, with the only drawback being the weak motor (56 hp, 100 km/h top speed). Add a bit more power and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EVs — as the VW e-Up! is pricey, the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, and the Smart Forfour ED … well, looks too goofy for my taste.

#5 — BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues delivering decent performances, with 2,946 units being registered last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low-key e5 actually has a lot going for it: 305 kilometers of range from a 48 kWh battery and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230,000 Yuan ($33,400). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?

Year-to-Date Ranking – Hear That? It’s the Song Coming.

The big news in July was of course the rise and rise of the BYD Song PHEV, jumping four positions to #4, becoming at the same time the best-selling SUV and best-selling PHEV in the YTD ranking.

Expect in August that the Song will surpass its e5 sibling and reach the podium. As for the pole position, the difference could be too big to cut short, but with BYD, you never know, right?

The Chery eQ deserves a reference too, climbing two positions to #7. The Changan Benni EV also did well, joining the top 10 last month.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (21%, up 2%) is cementing its position at the Iron Throne, distancing itself from previous leader BAIC (17%). With Warp Speed now engaged, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition even further.

In 3rd place, we have Zhidou, with 10% share, but with SAIC now on its tail (9%, up 2%), it will be only a matter of time until the Shanghai-based manufacturer surpasses Zhidou in its bid to become the 3rd biggest of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

As a side note, if there were bets surrounding the global best-selling manufacturer in 2017, I would go with BYD. Yes, most are betting on Tesla. Yes, Tesla is ahead by 7,000 units. But I would still bet on BYD. Not only because of the Song twins, but in a couple of months, BYD will also launch the Yuan crossover (think Opel Mokka/Buick Encore) in both BEV and PHEV versions, adding some precious thousands of units to the current ones.

In 2018, again, the only company able to steal the show from Tesla will be … BYD. A new Tang and the Song MPV are scheduled for launch, adding even more volume to the company sales. I’m not saying BYD will, but it is the only company with enough pace to prevent Tesla from finally winning the Best Selling PEV Manufacturer trophy, something it has been pursuing without success since 2008.

Incidentally, this is the same number of years that the Boston Celtics have been without trophies.

Will both Tesla and the Celtics break the spell in 2018?

	China	July	YTD	EV Market Share YTD
1	Zhidou D2 EV	3,796	22,489	10%
2	BAIC EC-Series	4,068	22,007	10%
3	BYD e5	2,946	13,772	6%
4	BYD Song PHEV	5,069	11,907	5%
5	SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,606	10,811	5%
6	JAC iEV6S	2,078	10,100	4%
7	Chery eQ	3,264	9,869	4%
8	Geely Emgrand EV	1,715	9,697	4%
9	BYD Tang	977	8,479	4%
10	Changan Benni EV	1,645	7,709	3%
11	JMC E100	1,441	7,577	3%
12	Zotye E200	1,281	7,230	3%
13	BAIC EU-Series	1,123	6,814	3%
14	Tesla Model S*	160	5,295	2%
15	Zotye Cloud EV	1,079	4,766	2%
16	Tesla Model X*	150	4,664	2%
17	BYD Qin EV300	145	4,262	2%
18	Horki 300E*	500	4,199	2%
19	JMC E200	257	3,914	2%
20	BAIC EX200	150	3,727	2%
	Others	11,229	48,684	21%
	TOTAL	44,679	227,972	100%

Cool Kids

In this section, we look at some of the cars landing in the previous month that have potential to reach the top 20:

GAC Trumpchi GE3 — Also known as just GAC GE3 at its 2017 NAIAS debut (apparently, they thought the “Trumpchi” name would damage the brand in US soil …), GAC has big ambitions for its GE3 model, its first dedicated BEV. Namely, it’s aiming at a 2019 arrival in the USA and other western markets, so its landing is a big deal, not only for the brand, but for the Chinese PEV market as a whole. Its price is set to start at around $30,000 USD. For that price, it offers a 50 kWh battery, enough for 310 kilometers of range, with 0–100 km/h being done in a reasonable 9.3 secs. With these specs, the compact crossover won’t have a problem with demand, but without major experience with plug-ins — in 2016 it only sold 3,000, all plug-in hybrids — GAC will have a hard time scaling up production. That makes a 200,000 target set for 2020 a bit hard to reach.

Geely Emgrand PHEV — Following on the success of the BEV version, the parent company of Volvo now has a PHEV version of its sedan (with 61 kilometers of range). It landed last month with 30 deliveries, no doubt demonstration units. With the BEV version being a regular among the best sellers, it won’t be a surprise if the new PHEV Emgrand reaches some 2,000 units/month. The thing is, sedans are losing ground to SUVs. Geely needs to follow the money, and right now, the money is in compact SUVs/crossovers (three of the top 6 models fall into this category). So, the automaker needs to launch a competitive model in that category if it wants to stay among the best.

July 2017
US Electric Car Sales

Tesla Model 3 is here, and that has pushed me to again incorporate Tesla sales estimates into our monthly US electric car sales reports. Well, that and a repeated request from readers to bring back Tesla’s US sales estimates*.

Surprisingly — despite the ecstatic headlines about the car — the Model 3 isn’t yet #1! However, big sister Model S is, by a sizable margin.

The Chevy Bolt, with a record sales month, took the #2 spot, inching out my estimate for the Model X. After that, the plug-in hybrid Toyota Prius Prime and Chevy Volt round out the top 5.

Despite the addition of some extremely quick competitors on its track, the Nissan LEAF landed a healthy monthly sales total — still well above 1,000 cars a month — to take the #6 spot. After Ms. LEAF, the widely available yet less competitive (at least in consumers’ eyes) Ford C-Max Energi, Ford Fusion Energi, and BMW i3 took #7, #8, and #9, respectively. That said, the Energi models would theoretically surpass the Chevy Volt for the #5 spot if combined as one car.

In theory the Volkswagen e-Golf is #10 here, but there are actually over a dozen other plug-in cars on the market than reported here. They are basically compliance cars and are mostly plug-in hybrids with small batteries, but the core reason I don’t report them here is that the parent automakers don’t report them. Yes, I could put my blindfold on and try to estimate them (like I’m doing with Tesla sales), but I actually have a lot less info to go on for those models than for the Tesla models and, well, like I wrote, they are compliance cars with low sales — nothing like Model S and Model X sales.

Looking at July 2017 sales versus July 2016 sales, the sales of this group of fully electric cars were up 46%. Plug-in hybrid sales, meanwhile, were up 10%. Overall, that means the sales of these 14 plug-in cars were up 19%.

January–July 2017 vs January–July 2016, fully electric car sales were up 86%, plug-in hybrid sales were up 34%, and sales of all 14 plug-in cars were up 45%.

The year-to-date leaders are similar, but there are some notable differences. Yes, the Tesla Model 3 is again last. I wonder if that position will last through the end of the year. 😉 Similarly, the Tesla Model S is again far ahead at #1. Considered the best sedan ever mass produced, it’s not too surprising the Model S is doing so well — it’s deservedly crushing the broader large luxury car competition.

The Chevy Volt, another hyper-competitive car in its class, is sitting at #2, approximately 1,000 sales above the Tesla Model X. The Model X is much more slimly ahead of the Toyota Prius Prime, but with Tesla expecting a big boost in production and sales in the second half of 2017, I’m presuming it will pull away from the Prius Prime and maybe even pass up the Volt. We’ll see.

The Chevy Bolt is a significant step below the Prius Prime, but expect it to gain ground and maybe take the #4 spot — or even the #3 spot — before year’s end. Production keeps growing as availability across the United States expands.

As noted above, the LEAF keeps on truckin’ (or LEAFin’?) despite the much longer range but similarly priced Bolt and Model 3 arriving on the scene. Large discounts are presumably a key reason for that, but so is the LEAF’s early mover advantages, high customer satisfaction, word of mouth, and widespread availability.

Similar to the month of July, if you combine the Ford Energi models, they actually outsold the Chevy Volt. Not too shabby for some quite dated models, which are competing (to some degree) with the Volt (much longer electric range) and Prius Prime (a much bigger reputation for efficient, electrified driving).

BMW i8, BMW i3, and Ford Fusion Energi sales were down most notably in July and January–July. i8 sales could well be getting gobbled by the Model S (it’s just so much quicker and has such higher tech). The i3 is arguably the electric car most threatened by the Model 3 (even if it does have its own unique advantages and selling points). And the Fusion Energi is likely being harmed at the cash register by the new-ish Prius Prime and Volt. It’s hard to see any of these models picking up steam (er, electrons) without massive model year updates and/or price reductions.

Those are my key takeaways from July. Have more? Have predictions for what happens in August? Drop the comments down below.

*Tesla doesn’t publish monthly sales numbers and doesn’t break out sales by region/country. Nonetheless, Tesla sales elsewhere — particularly, in China and Europe — and occasional statements from Tesla CEO Elon Musk help us to estimate US monthly sales.

June 2017
Europe Electric Car Sales

Unbeatable Zoe

The European passenger plug-in market had a near-record month in June, with 28,000 registrations, up 54% over the same month last year. For the year through June, the market is up 30% this year, with the EV share now standing at a record 1.5%.

The Renault Zoe is a bit like cyclist Chris Froome — it seems no one can get the car out of the yellow jersey, with the French hatchback being once again the continent’s best seller. Tesla models profited from their usual last-month-of-quarter peak to climb a couple of positions in the ranking.

Monthly Model Ranking

#1 Renault Zoe — With quality glitches now a thing of the past, it was all hands on deck at Renault in June, with the French Zoe scoring a record 4,189 registrations, up 73% YoY, enough to win (for the sixth time in a row) the Monthly Best Seller trophy in Europe. Or all 2017 trophies … as Zoe nailed a number of individual performance records across Europe. The Zoe set records in Germany (680 sales), Norway (428 sales), Austria (237 sales), and Portugal (112 sales), all while managing to post a positive result in the all-important domestic market (France), with 1,882 sales.

#2 BMW i3 — This German hot hatch was up 161%, to 1,634 registrations, with 3 out 4 units sold being the fully electric variety — a great contrast with what happened 12 months ago, when the REx variety used to outsell the all-electric version. What extended range does, huh? Anyway, these were solid results for the BMW model, especially in Norway, which saw 420 sales, all of them being fully electric. The i3 also had a good final score in its home country of Germany (315 sales). Looking ahead, expect deliveries to slowly drop as people anticipate the revised version coming later in the year.

#3 Nissan LEAF — Thanks to deep discounting, the ageing hatch is resisting the newer offerings quite well, reaching 3rd place and even managing to grow(!) 4% YoY to 1,590 registrations. With steady sales in its stronghold markets (France, UK, and Norway) and increasingly significant sales in Sweden (123 units, up 112% YoY), the veteran model is keeping momentum by appealing to a new demographic — bargain hunters looking for the current best value for the money out there.

#4 Tesla Model X — Back in the top 5, the EV scene’s favorite SUV recorded 1,552 deliveries last month, managing to outsell for the first time in Europe its Model S brethren. Is the Model 3’s long shadow starting to dent Model S sales?

But I digress — back to the Model X. The largest market for the SUV/minivan-that-thinks-it’s-a-sports-car was Norway, with a record 609 deliveries (sarcasm mode on — “What a surprise!”). It also did well in Switzerland (156 deliveries), Germany (136 deliveries), and the Netherlands (121 deliveries). With this model not being directly affected by the Model 3 cannibalization effect or by close competition, expect the Model X to continue to be a regular here, being only limited by its (very) high price.

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — After a rare positive month in May, the Japanese SUV is back into a depressing sales trend, ending June with 1,435 registrations, down 8% YoY. Mitsubishi found a golden nugget in Scandinavia, more specifically Norway (349 deliveries) and Sweden (271 deliveries), but in the long run, it remains to be seen if that will be enough to keep this Japanese SUV among Europe’s top sellers.

YTD Ranking – Zoe Reinforces #1, Nissan LEAF Climbs to #2

Looking at the YTD ranking, the top positions remained stable, with the Zoe increasing its lead. The most notable changes were the Tesla Model S returning to the #5 spot and its Model X sibling climbing two positions to #8.

Other models on the rise are as follows:

The Audi A3 e-Tron, up one position to #11 thanks to 943 deliveries, its best this year.

The VW e-Golf, which was #6 in June thanks to a record 1,409 deliveries, allowing it to jump to #13 YTD. Comparing with the plug-in hybrid Golf GTE, the new 36 kWh super-sized e-Golf outsold it in June on a 2-to-1 ratio, whereas last year it was the GTE outselling the 24 kWh e-Golf on a 2-to-1 ratio.

So, as with the BMW i3, the longer the range of the fully electric version, the higher the sales of the all-electric version (consequently dropping the sales of the plug-in hybrid or REx version).

Looking below the top 20, there are some hot sellers bubbling up, like the recently arrived Mini Countryman plug-in hybrid (510 units in June, a new record) and the Opel Ampera-e (Chevrolet Bolt in Euro-speak, registering 392 deliveries last month). Note that the Ampera-e deliveries totalled a drop in the ocean of orders that Opel has across the continent for this model (there are more than 4,000 orders in Norway alone).

One advice to GM: Instead of producing units mainly for California, only to win dust on local dealerships, why not start to allocate production for the orders already made in Europe? I know ZEV credits are nice and all that, but there are more ways to win money … and while you’re at it, in Canada, South Korea, and the rest of the US, there are also buyers waiting for months (years?) for their Chevy Bolt, you know?

Now is the time to see if The General walks the walk, or if it just talks, talks, talks.

	Europe	June	YTD	%
1	Renault Zoe	4,189	17,146	13
2	Nissan Leaf	1,590	11,007	8
3	BMW i3	1,634	10,260	8
4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	1,435	9,294	7
5	Tesla Model S	1,373	6,580	5
6	VW Passat GTE	939	6,314	5
7	Mercedes GLC350e	1,354	5,944	4
8	Tesla Model X	1,552	5,613	4
9	BMW 225xe	1,069	5,132	4
10	BMW 330e	881	5,032	4
11	Audi A3 e-Tron	943	4,026	3
12	Volvo XC90 T8	638	3,940	3
13	VW e-Golf	1,409	3,828	3
14	BMW X5 xDrive40e	680	3,247	2
15	VW Golf GTE	743	3,195	2
16	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	529	2,664	2
17	Mercedes C350e	351	2,310	2
18	Kia Soul EV	422	2,214	2
19	Nissan e-NV200	383	2,166	2
20	Audi Q7 e-Tron	417	2,019	2
	Others	5,588	21,225	15
	TOTAL	28,119	133,156	100

Top Manufacturers

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BMW (20%) is comfortably seated on the top spot, followed by Renault (14%, up 1%) in 2nd place, while 3rd place is being hardly fought by Volkswagen (11%, up 1%), Nissan (10%, down 1%), Tesla (9%), and Mercedes (9%).

With the Wolfsburg brand now in #3 and making the restyled Golf plug-ins at full speed, expect it to race with Renault for the #2 position soon.

Cool Kids

Looking at new models, the big news is the thundering arrival of the Porsche Panamera plug-in hybrid, while the much awaited Hyundai Ioniq PHEV and Smart ED offerings have also just arrived.

Porsche Panamera PHEV — With 595 deliveries in June, by far the nameplate’s best performance ever (the previous record was 189 units), the second edition Panamera PHEV landed in Europe with a bang. The headlining news of the month for the model was that it hit 198 deliveries in Germany, or 46% of all Panamera deliveries that month. But record performances happened across Europe, so if these numbers are any indication of the future, this could be a disruptive model in its segment, and possibly even a serious sales competitor to the Tesla Model S, something unthinkable a couple of years back. This is also a good sign for the 2020 Porsche Mission E.

Hyundai Ioniq PHEV — This version of the Ioniq has been a long time coming. With Hyundai still flooded with orders of the fully electric version, the Korean carmaker finally decided to launch the PHEV version as well, recording 170 deliveries in its first sales month. With competitive specs and pricing, this will be another model whose success will be dictated by production constraints, something that unfortunately has become the norm among Hyundai-Kia plug-ins.

Smart Fortwo & Forfour ED — With several months of delay, we finally have the second-generation Smart Fortwo ED, this time accompanied by its 4-seater sibling, the Forfour ED. With similar specs as the first generation and still no fast charging, do not expect an EV revolution to come from here, but with a debut month of 424 units for the Fortwo ED (best result since December 2014) and 161 deliveries for the Forfour ED, a combined output of over 1,000 units per month is expected.

June 2017
China Electric Car Sales

The Chinese market had more than 43,000 new EVs zooming the streets last month. With the market growing below expectations, at 16% YoY, this performance from China feels like when LeBron James scores 28 points in an NBA Finals game — it would be a great score for anyone else, but people expect more from the star of the team.

Anyway, the EV market share grew to 1.5% in China, already beating last year’s record (1.45%). Expect that as the year progresses and sales expand, the Chinese PEV market will surpass the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 6% belong to Tesla, with the remaining 1% divided by all other automakers.

In June, the Zhidou D2 EV was once again the best-selling model, surpassing BAIC’s golden boy EC180 for the lead in the YTD ranking, while BYD has beaten the all-time manufacturer sales record by registering 11,198 units last month, stepping up the pace and surpassing previous leader Beijing Auto in the best-selling manufacturer race.

Top 5 Best-Selling Electric Models in June

#1 – Zhidou D2 EV: This bare-basics city vehicle probably doesn’t inspire anyone, but it surely continues to be delivered in record quantities (4,714 units in June), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 km range, 90 km/hr max speed, and all for some €16,000.

#2 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y,” a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, in this case in a plug-in hybrid version (the fully electric version has had its first units registered just this month). In only its second full sales month, 4,552 of these BYD Song PHEVs were registered, the second best score ever for a BYD model — the Tang set the record at 5,503 registrations back in December 2015, but that’ll probably be beaten this summer. Why is this model so disruptive?

A) It’s an SUV, and we know how they are sucking up sales everywhere. (For some reason, its sedan counterpart, the Qin, disappeared from the spotlight. Expect something similar to happen sometime in 2020 to the Tesla Model 3.)

B) It has the same impressive specs that its larger brother Tang has (18.4 kWh battery, 70 km range, 0–100 km/h in 4.9 secs), but with a more affordable price ($41,300 USD), which will make it the strongest candidate for the monthly best seller trophies in the coming months.

#3 – Chery eQ EV: A consistent high seller in China, the funky Chery eQ sold a record 3,466 units in June. This is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs — for €22,000 before incentives, you get a decently equipped city car with a 22 kWh battery and 200 kilometers of range. The only major drawback is the weak engine (56 hp, 100 km/h top speed). Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EVs, since the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, the VW e-Up! is pricey, and the Smart Forfour ED … well, it looks too goofy for my taste. (What were Smart designers smoking when they created this recent generation?!?).

#4 – BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues to impress, delivering another record performance (the third in a row), with 3,206 units moved last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low-key e5 actually has a lot going for it: 305 kilometers of range from a 48 kWh battery, and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230,000 Yuan ($33,400). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?

#5 – JAC iEV6S: Despite being a vehicle in the intersection of the two hottest trends in China — crossovers and EVs — success surprisingly escaped the iEV6S due to battery production constraints. But those days are now a thing of the past, having scored a record 3,001 deliveries last month. Expect this Nissan Juke–sized crossover to be a frequent sight here in the coming months — not only does it have an attractive design, inside and out, but also decent specs: 114 hp and 251 kilometers of range coming from a 33 kWh battery provided by Samsung.

Year-to-Date Ranking – Zhidou D2 & BYD New Kings

The big news when it comes to changes in the year-to-date ranking was of course the rise to #1 of the Tin Lizzie Zhidou D2 EV. The BYD e5 finally reaching the podium was notable as well, and the JAC iEV6S continues to climb the ladder, now jumping to #5.

But the sensation of the month was the BYD Song PHEV, shooting to #8 in only its second full month on the market. Expect it in July to reach the top 5 and maybe even the podium by the end of Summer.

Tesla may not be thrilled with its rankings, but the Tesla Model S and Model X being present on the top 20 ranking make them by far the most successful foreign models. The third-best-selling overseas model was the BMW X1 PHEV, with an estimated 600 units delivered.

Looking at the manufacturer ranking, BYD (19%, up 2%) is back at the Iron Throne, replacing the previous leader BAIC (17%, down 1%). With warp speed now turned on, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition at lightning speed.

In 3rd place and without immediate pretensions to be the King of the Realm, we have Zhidou, with 10% share, followed by SAIC (7%).

China	June	YTD	Market Share
Zhidou D2 EV	4,714	18,693	10%
BAIC EC180	2,563	17,939	10%
BYD e5	3,206	10,826	6%
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1,541	9,205	5%
JAC iEV6S	3,001	8,197	5%
Geely Emgrand EV	478	7,982	4%
BYD Tang	1,573	7,502	4%
BYD Song PHEV	4,552	6,838	4%
Chery eQ	3,466	6,605	4%
JMC E100	1,153	6,136	3%
Changan Benni EV	1,778	6,064	3%
Zotye E200	1,568	5,949	3%
BAIC EU260	1,333	5,691	3%
Kandi EV	315	4,804	3%
Tesla Model S	1,600	4,785	3%
Tesla Model X	500	4,514	3%
BYD Qin EV300	593	4,117	2%
Zotye Cloud EV	1,568	3,687	2%
JMC E200	759	3,657	2%
BAIC EX200	520	3,577	2%
Others	7,110	32,380
TOTAL	43,891	179,148

Cool Kids

In this section, we look at some of the cars landing in the previous month that have potential to reach the top 20. Although, in this first edition, we’re broadening the timeframe to the last two months:

BYD Song EV300: The fully electric twin brother of the Song PHEV, this is a model destined for success, starting with some BYD DNA strong points: long range (a 48 kWh battery allows it to reach 300 kilometers of rated range) and quick acceleration (0–100 km/h in 8.9 secs). Although not as fast as the PHEV version, it has the right technology to succeed in this BEV-friendly market. How successful will it be? I would put 2,000 units/month as minimum bar. For now, there were 189 units registered in its landing month.

SAIC Roewe eRX5 BEV and i6 PHEV: Following on the success of the eRX5 PHEV version, the Tiguan-like-but-better-looking RX5 SUV now has a BEV version (with a 48 kWh battery, watch out, BYD!). Meanwhile, the i6, one of the most appealing Chinese sedans on the road, grew a plug and now has a PHEV version, using the same drivetrain as the eRX5.

The all-electric SUV landed in June, with 43 units, but in a few months, once the production kinks are sorted, sales should easily reach into four digits per month. As for the Audi A4–sized i6 PHEV sedan, it scored 359 units in its first full sales month. Given the recent sales bleeding that sedans are suffering, it will be hard for it to replicate the success of its e550 predecessor, so reaching four-digit sales will be considered a success.

Also published on our EV Sales page and the EV-Sales blogspot.

June 2017
US Electric Car Sales

Big Auto gets a lot of criticism here. The problem for large automakers is that they will crush their own finances and have to write off massive investments if they rapidly shift to electric transport, but they are exposing themselves to great threat if they are too slow electrifying their offerings. Nonetheless, it’s hard to sympathize when gas & diesel cars & trucks are destroying our planet’s climate and countless humans’ health. Sometimes the moral high ground should trump the wrath of shareholders.

The good news is that electric cars are better, better, and better, so consumers should be on hand to happily help automakers make the transition and give up their insane obsession with burning stuff.

June’s US electric car sales are a good example of how one small and hesitant step from automakers leads to 10 enthusiastic leaps from consumers. Looking at the sales of automakers who report the monthly sales of their plug-in models, we can see that fully electric car sales grew 102% in June 2017 versus June 2016, and plug-in hybrid sales grew 11.5%. For the year through June, those fully electric car sales are up 96% and plug-in hybrid sales are up 42%. (Again, these numbers don’t even include Tesla’s rapid growth, since Tesla doesn’t report monthly sales or split out US sales from global sales.)

Aside from Tesla, GM and Nissan are leading on the fully electric car front, while GM and Toyota are top of the market when it comes to plug-in hybrids. Apart from BMW, these are the only major automakers that have put a significant amount of effort into the electric cars they have on the market today. It’s not that surprising that the companies that have put in the most work offering electric vehicles are the ones selling the most electric vehicles, but the big question is when they see this market as their most important growth market and offer several original electric cars across popular car classes.

In the end, 1000–2000 sales a month will encourage automakers to keep electrifying, but it’s 20,000 or so sales a month that make an individual model one of Big Auto’s cornerstone and iconic offerings. That would be something like 3–4 years of 100% growth for GM’s Chevy Bolt.

It’s still hard to imagine a large automaker getting to 20,000 monthly sales of an electric model by 2020, but maybe they will be inspired by demand for the Tesla Model 3 and maybe they have enough magic up their sleeves that we can be positively surprised by the time the next oil-funded US presidential election comes around.

China’s EV Market Share Hits 3.3%, BAIC EC-Series = Superstar

Top 5 Best Selling Electric Models in December 2017

Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series Wins Model of the Year, BYD Wins Manufacturer Title

Cool Kids

Tesla Shines In Near Record Month

Monthly Model Ranking

2017 Ranking — Renault Zoe Wins #1 Best Selling EV Model Award, BMW Wins #1 EV Manufacturer Award

YTD Ranking — Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Reaches the Podium

BAIC EC-Series Steps Into Warp Speed

November’s Top 5 Best Selling Electric Cars in China

Year-to-Date Ranking – JAC iEV6S/E climbs to Fourth

Cool Kids

VW e-Golf Shines

YTD Ranking – Volkswagen e-Golf Climbs to #8, StreetScooter Joins Top 20

Year-to-Date Ranking – BAIC EC-Series Orders the 2017 Title

Top 5 Best-Selling Electric Models in September

Year-to-Date Ranking — BYD Qin PHEV Jumps 6 Positions

Cool Kids

Monthly Model Ranking

YTD Ranking – BMW i3 Recovers 2nd Place, Teslas & e-Golf Shine

The (VW) Empire Strikes Back

YTD Ranking — Volkswagen on the Rise

Cool Kids

Year-to-Date Ranking — Beijing Auto EC-Series Back at #1

Cool Kids

Zoe #1 in Holiday Season

Monthly Model Ranking

YTD Ranking — Zoe Reinforces #1, Nissan LEAF Climbs to #2

Cool Kids

Year-to-Date Ranking – Hear That? It’s the Song Coming.

Cool Kids

Unbeatable Zoe

Monthly Model Ranking

YTD Ranking – Zoe Reinforces #1, Nissan LEAF Climbs to #2

Top Manufacturers

Cool Kids

Top 5 Best-Selling Electric Models in June

Year-to-Date Ranking – Zhidou D2 & BYD New Kings

Cool Kids

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China’s EV Market Share Hits 3.3%,
BAIC EC-Series = Superstar

2017 Ranking —
Renault Zoe Wins #1 Best Selling EV Model Award,
BMW Wins #1 EV Manufacturer Award