While we only just got to experience “Part 1” of the Tesla Model 3 reveal on March 31, and “Part 2” is still probably at least a year (or more) away, speculation about what remains to be revealed has been going very strong. That’s understandable enough, after one puts a $1000 deposit down, and then has their expectations exceeded, but still has to wait ~2 more years, what else are they going to do?
So, in the spirit of pure speculation (and nothing more), let’s go over what we know so far. A recent tweet from Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk seems to confirm what many have been guessing about a link between the relatively spare design of the Model 3 interior and the company’s plans for fully autonomous driving (Level 4 autonomous technology).
@BValvsRacing It will make sense after part 2 of the Model 3 unveil
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 3, 2016
Musk was previously publicly quoted as saying that he expects fully autonomous driving to be a technical possibility by 2018. He even went as far as to state that it would be technically possible for one to summon their Tesla from one coast to the other (eg from New York to California) by 2018. (He did add that regulatory hurdles might hold up deployment.)
So, all of this considered, it seems a fair bet that the future of the company’s autonomous technology will feature prominently in Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal.
Other likely topics include: specifics as far as battery-pack size choices, pricing, performance specs, Supercharger access (Free? Or not?), etc. It also seems likely that a more developed timeline for the expected production ramp-up will be revealed as well.
I’m curious to hear what other people think will be revealed at Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal. Any other ideas?
Considering what a seemingly game-changing event Part 1 of the reveal has been, who even knows at this point. Personally I had been expecting 150,000 to 200,000 reservations in the days following the reveal — I’m a bit surprised at how high the reservation numbers have gotten, and at how much media coverage the Model 3 has been getting.
I suspect part 2 will include some form of scheduled price skewing to level out purchase response with respect to federal tax incentive expiration.
i wouldn’t expect tesla to drop the sales price post-incentive to match the exact out-of-pocket expense for buyers, but i do suspect that some “economies of scale” will enable tesla to sell later cars for less than they sell earlier cars and that they will also be motivated to ensure that sales don’t plummet immediately in response to tax incentive expiration. hedging my bet’s i’d guess that tesla would meet folks half-way. if so then:
– during full incentive period: $35k – $7.5k = $27,500 effective sales price
– for 6 months after they hit 200k total EVs sold the incentive drops by 50% to $3750, so tesla would offset sales price by half of the decrease (-$1875) so the effective sales price becomes ($35k – $3.75k – $1.875k = $29.375k). buyers in those 6 months only take a $1875 hit relative to those buying during full incentive period
– for 6 months after that the incentive drops by another 50% to $1875, so tesla would offset sales price by half the decrease from original incentive (-$2812.50) . the effective sales price would be ($35k – 1.875k – $2.812k = $30.3k). buyers in those 6 months would only take a $4687.50 hit relative to those buying during full incentive period
pure speculation of course – but doing SOMETHING to smooth out sales during incentive expiration makes sense to me, and it also makes sense that the economies of scale would justify such an action as long as reservations have a high conversion rate to purchases.
i also wonder if the drive to scale up to mass production might motivate tesla to fulfill LOWER cost packages prior to higher cost? that’s likely a pipedream (i don’t expect to be able to afford an upper tier package when my reservation comes up so i’m biased towards WANTING this to be true). but if their goal is to to push high volume as soon as possible it might make sense. there will likely be a LOT more lower-tier purchases than higher-tier purchases (is that my bias showing up again?) and so without having to retool anything they could knock out larger volumes of those lower-tier cars by prioritizing them.
it will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. in the meantime i’m looking at my LEAF like it’s an ancient Babylonian artifact rather than a high-tech marvel and i’m eager to see these ~2 years elapse quickly.
Probably the opposite if they want to maximize the use of the incentives. In the first year, average price is $42.5K. Subtract the $7,500 credit and you get $35k effective. After deposit starts tapering, the average is $38,750 – $3,750 = effective price of $35k. The barebones, $35k cars won’t show up in production runs until after the credit is gone.
I think that it will include a heads up display.
In a tweet, Elon specifically said there will not be a hud.
Okay, I thought he has indicated there would be one.
I thought the tweet leaned toward there being one too. Just wasn’t explicit.
It might also be a screen in the center of the steering wheel that he referred to….
Unclear, he says they have a solution — could still be HUD.
Dash will be great, AWD,big battery and amazing performance will be affordable at $40k. Range will be great with 240 miles in the base model, 300 in big battery) Add autopilot and super charging and glass roof for $5k. If you look at A4 and BMW, these number are what it will take. Big risk is that dual will require big battery. Risky because battery will be highest cost option.
Is the panorama roof standard? Or is it extra?
Is the 6 seconds acceleration standard or extra? If standard, then a Performance AWD can be less than 5 seconds?
At the Reveal Video now on the Model 3 Page of Tesla’s website – they clearly state – even a person who buys no extra options, just the base car, it will deliver 0-60 in under 6 seconds and (probably not while constantly pushing it that hard) – get you to a target EPA Rating of 215 miles range!
i think the roof is going to be an extra. (Robert answered other part)
Has anyone who has posted the $1K received an email from Tesla? My CC was charged but no email yet.
I order mine Thursday morning at a store. I didn’t receive the confirmation email until Saturday afternoon for reference. I was sweating it too.
It might depend on store servers speed, as I got my welcome email within 5 minutes at 09:36 AM – and the Confirmation email came at 09:42 AM! – Maybe Check your inbox / Junk folder?
it took about 1 day to get my confirmation, and i was 43/44 in line at the Santa Monica store.
No email to date, but I finally realized I had created a Tesla account in the reserve process, and when I logged in my reserve number was sitting there. So that is fine.
Zach…. 43/44 in line. lol. Must have been a great experience. I’m hearing now that those who live closest to dealers will be first to take delivery. I am some distant from a dealer so not expecting my ride until…… ??