January 2016 Tesla Model X Production Number Estimates

With Tesla Model X production now beginning to really pick up, some people are beginning to try and methodically determine the actual rate of production — and thus monthly estimates — using the bits that we know (VINs, etc).

While such estimates are of course tentative, and occasionally wrong, those of us who have become a bit obsessed with Tesla over these last few years perhaps can’t stop ourselves. On that note, the commentator “AdamSM” on the Tesla Motors Club forum recently began a discussion thread attempting to estimate Model X production numbers for January that we think is worth a look. Here’s what he had to say:

So, we now have enough information to make some very rough estimates of January Model X production. We know that in December, they produced 507 Model Xs. As of January 30, 2016, they have produced at least 444 (approximately) production Model Xs (because people at the event last night reported that production engineers said that they produce Model Xs in roughly VIN order, and 444 was a VIN of one of the display production Model Xs). That means that they have probably produced a minimum of something like 1200 Sigs (could be more like 1000, we don’t really know; the highest reported VIN on modelxtracker.com is 897), plus 60ish Founders, plus around 450 production Model Xs total. They may have produced some more production Model Xs; there are people with VINs up to 807 on the tracker, although VINs may be assigned before production begins, and are almost certainly assigned before production is completed.

So, if we assume 1000 Sigs + 60 Founders + 450 production, that’s a minimum of a total of 1510 Model Xs produced (not delivered, of course, but produced), of which right around 1000 would have been produced during January. An upper bound might be assuming 1200 Sigs, plus 60 Founders, plus 900 production, which would be 2160 total, or 1600 and change during January. (I think the actual number would be closer to the lower bound than the upper, but I figured I’d calculate both). So I think that they averaged about 250-300 Model Xs per week in January (right in the neighborhood of the “238 per week” from the announcement about Q4 production, but with a little bit of a ramp from that production rate).

As CEO Elon Musk has previously revealed that the ramp up period for the Model X would be fairly rapid — with production numbers matching those of the Model S relatively “soon” — one would assume that the final weeks of January saw a notably higher rate of production than the earlier weeks.

Also worth noting here — as commenter “vgrinshpun” reminded — is that Tesla generally seems to shut production down during the first week of January. If this happened in 2016, this means, of course, that most of the production occurred during the middle and end of the month.

Wondering how accurate any of this ends up being? It seems pretty on the ball theoretically, but who knows as of right now?