This topic contains 1 reply, has 2 voices, and was last updated by Max Holland 8 months, 1 week ago.
May 19, 2016 at 9:04 am #11446
Critical things that I think the electric car market needs in order to succeed include:
1) Widespread superfast EV charging (not just for one company — Tesla).
2) Long-range electric models in classes that span the various needs and interests of the broader car market (including pickup trucks, SUVs, large sedans, small sedans, large hatchbacks, small hatchbacks, minivans, etc.)
3) A clear solution (or, more likely, multiple solutions) for the majority of people living in homes where home charging isn’t possible.
4) A much larger and more efficient battery production market.
5) Dealers that are willing to and interested in selling EVs.
6) Better automaker advertising regarding EVs.
7) Cost-competitiveness with gasmobiles with the same features, size, etc. (Almost there, and already there with the Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X, and (soon) Tesla Model 3.June 14, 2016 at 1:07 pm #11931
@ Zach – great topic for discussion. I agree with you, and would put the priorities;
1=) Lower battery cost/kwh (via significant process improvements & gradual chemistry improvements). This is the main factor in improving your 2) range, and reaching your 7)- cost competitiveness with ICEVs
1=) Widespread Superfast charging (ideally less than 15 minutes to go from ~10% to ~80%). This by itself could provide much of the solution to your 3) – folks who can’t readily charge at home. And of course remove any vestiges of ‘range anxiety’ for longer trips.
2) Workplace / destination / parking-lot / mall semi-fast charging (a complimentary solution to your 3).
3) EV image improvements in the mass-market’s perception.
I think your points about dealers and advertising will come automatically with time, as the image of EVs improves and propagates. Halo hypercars have already moved to hybrid powertrains – a good step. Other halo areas like motorsport are getting on board with EVs. Telsa’s performance variants are important for this aspect. Porsche will bring out EV performance models with sincerity, in the not-too-distant future.
Charging standards are a must. It is looking like CCS might gradually achieve this. Standards are necessarily a compromise, but the CCS is an open standard and decent. Having multi-standard superfast chargers (e.g. Tesla/CCS or CHAdaMO/CCS) may be necessary for a while, but might be too costly for basic/slower chargers. Having an standardized automated payment system via the car’s electronics ID would help also.
Another dealer/seller issue is to do with revenue-from-maintenance. A way to overcome this is reluctance is to allow direct sales of EVs (a la Tesla). Autoshops will decline in business with EVs.
Your point 4) about scaling up battery production to meet future demand is beginning and will accelerate with time and market forces, there will no doubt be lags, but we will get there. Tesla/Panasonic, LG, BYD, Samsung and a couple of others are leading the charge.
Things will be accelerated significantly/disrupted massively by self-driving vehicles, which are likely to be EVs. If key goals are to reduce fossil fuel use (and other resources) and improve quality of life (noise, pollution, traffic) in urban areas, this is the unprecedented disruption on the horizon, approaching fast (think tsunami). So an alternative list might just have 1 item – self-driving electric vehicles. They don’t have to be very long-range, nor very cheap to have an unassailable business case, but they do have to be very safe.